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First hurdle; The PCE – has to show lower inflation
As I write my weekly analysis, the futures late Sunday night down with the SPX down .62% and the NDX down .81%. The 10-year treasury has fallen the steepest since 2020. One can interpret this data as somewhat alarming, however with the unrest in China, one can discount at least some of the negativity influenced by Asian traders. WTI has also fallen to a yearly low at about $74 per barrel. I would note that last week started similarly and the indexes ended up to positive later in the week. I suspect a similar start to this week, but that doesn’t mean I expect smooth sailing for the first half of December. There are a number of hurdles for stock market participants to navigate. The first hurdle is Thursday’s economic data reveal PCE – Personal Consumption Expenditure for October. This is reputed to be the favorite measure of inflation for the Fed; however, the data is nearly 2 months old. Odds are, or at least I would assume that market participants expect the numbers would follow the previous CPI reveal and show inflation growth slowing. Another reason I expect the week to start out positively in spite of the negative futures right now. Probably Wednesday could see some selling going into Thursday’s reveal. What if the PCE does not show improvement or even acceleration in inflation, I suspect that the selling would be muted specifically because the number is old. If pressed I would say the likelihood of the PCE coming in and showing improvement is about 65/35. I have no quantitative formula to back up that assertion just that with so much higher frequency data pointing to lower inflation that the PCE should be reflecting that even back to October.
Second Hurdle; November employment and the unemployment rate
The November employment number and percentage of unemployment could disappoint the orthodoxy of the Fed. The Fed believes higher employment means higher inflation. We know that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, with too much money chasing fewer goods and services. Higher employment means that more goods and services are being produced. Raising interest rates is in fact lowering consumption, and causing layoffs, though not because business is bad but because of fear that business will be bad. Right now most of the layoffs are centered in the tech sector. Strangely this will actually release more productivity not less. We have seen that these successful tech companies where the market only cared about revenue growth now want to see profits. Against that background is the notion that companies like Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN) were hoarding technology talent. So what is going to happen is that these companies will produce the same services with fewer people. The excess technology workers are going to go to other smaller firms that are desperate for tech talent. This will perturb the Fed, thinking that only having workers become idle will lower consumption and inflation. I think that perhaps the unemployment rate might tick up to 3.8% or may not move at all. Raising rates in my view to perhaps 4.50% makes for a more rational distribution of investment. So I don’t object to raising rates at all. I just think that pushing rates higher to destroy jobs will not suppress inflation directly. I am optimistic that the Fed is going to level off on rate rises, and wait for the economy to adjust to what really is the level it should have been at all along somewhere at the 4.5% level or thereabouts. I know that this is below the current expected FFR of +5%, but I don’t think it will need to get there. In any case, a high employment number and perhaps an unemployment percentage that may hold 3.7%, could cause tongues wagging about the Fed needing to raise another .75% and not the .50% that is expected. Once again, I think market participants will get over this scenario. Why? I believe the seasonal pattern will assert itself, we are in fact coming to the Santa Claus Rally. I believe corporate stock buybacks are being doled out before year-end. Also interestingly “Insider Selling” is falling, meaning that the people who know their companies best have determined that their stocks are too cheap to sell right now. That’s good enough for me.
Hurdle three; An impending railroad strike
This hurdle is one that I can’t blithely brush off. Most market participants are only just now learning about the possibility of the first national strike in decades. This is going to cost the economy $2B per day, I believe freight trains account for 40% of products being moved each day. Nearly every manufacturing process needs what railway freight provides. We are also talking about supplies as well as consumables that we need every day. There aren’t enough trucks to take up the slack either. The following Monday, December 5th will open up more discussion about the downside of what a railroad strike could do. This is a long-simmering dispute between the railroad companies and the unions. As it stands right now 4 unions have rejected the deal that was being negotiated, the other 8 unions will not cross the picket line. The only recourse is an act of congress to force them back to work. I am not totally assured that will happen as quickly as we need it to. I am hoping that someone blinks and the strike will be avoided. As we all know hope is not a strategy. Our subscription service Dual Mind Research has prepared our community by building up cash and putting on hedges in order to prepare. We are also moving back into the Oil and Gas names, that is because if there is a strike, that means coal will not be delivered to coal power plants, pushing up the price of natural gas.
I hope that cooler heads prevail and the strike will be averted. Just in case, we prepared for the worst and celebrate the best if we can avoid this disruptive strike.
Hurdles four and five, then we have a clean shot to 4300
If the strike can be averted or it ends up being shortened due to legislative action, we have a clear shot at a powerful year-end rally. My assumption is that the CPI reveal on December 13 will once again show a deceleration of inflation growth. Then December 14 is the Fed Open Market Committee announced a rate rise of .50%. This will give great relief to market participants. A strong rally is possible as evidence of inflation rolling over mounts. I suspect that by year-end there will be less talk about a terminal rate of 5%.
So how are we going to confront these hurdles?
We use Oil and Gas frackers as a form of hedging. I expect as I said that losing coal as a fuel source both for export and domestic power production will boost the prices of Natural Gas, and Fuel Oil to take up the slack. We also set up some options that benefit as the VIX rises. It has been my observation that whenever the VIX falls below 21, it tends to reverse direction and starts to rise. I also have some puts on AAPL, as the civil unrest in China is going to affect its ability to satisfy the demand for the iPhone 14. I know that WTI is falling to the lowest level since 2021. I am clearly favoring the opposite result. China is the biggest consumer of oil in the world. However on the other hand Europe is banning Russian oil next week. I think it will all balance out. In fact, oil-related equities are outperforming the price of WTI by a large margin. I will try my best to trade around the various hurdles. If the futures do end up pressuring stocks, I will look to close out at least some of my hedging. I won’t be averse to doing some fast money trades if the situation presents itself. I will look to put hedges back on going into the week of the 5th as the Railroad strike looms. I hope that for all our sakes the strike can be averted. If not, I will be hedged up as much as I can without overleveraging against the downside. If we can navigate around the strike, I think reaching above 4300 on the S&P 500 is quite possible. Not only do I have put options, I also have triple inverse ETFs that I can close out in premarket trading giving me further flexibility in managing my risk. Also having a nice slug of cash to pick up shares on the cheap as the situation presents itself.
Perhaps I am sounding more bearish than usual. It is only because there is a huge unknown here. Perhaps, I am misreading the situation and there is an easy solution that I am not aware of, but a nationwide strike, the first one in decades just has too many unknowns. If we can get beyond that then we can start thinking of a bull market rally. The more inflation recedes the more valuable stock becomes, they can gain back higher PE levels in anticipation of the higher future value of future profits. If you haven’t hedged, or put aside cash, I still believe the indexes will turn around tomorrow giving you the opportunity to put on hedges and add that cash. Just please don’t go to extremes. I am not 50% cash right now or anything close to that. Use your best judgment, look at each of your positions and ask yourself if the stocks you have are going to be higher in 6 months. They likely will just remember that insiders are selling less of their company’s stocks. They are telling us that stocks are well-priced.
Good luck everyone!
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