Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm – 17 April 2022

1. Correction-Drivers Update

• EPOL [Poland ETF] (geopolitics proxy): at a stalemate for now
• LQD [IG Credit ETF] (credit/rates): new lows as bond yields spike further
• ARKK [New Tech Fund] (tech burst): drifting further lower

Market itself just resting at support (and below both the 50 & 200dma).

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2. Amazon vs Commodities… Cycle has shifted: unfriendly regime for tech.

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3. The rise and rise of tech… Permanently higher plateau?

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4. Retail Investor Sentiment: Decent correction in sentiment as measured by this indicator, but it’s still quite far from the bottom end of the range.

Source: TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index

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5. The hidden bear market… The headline index itself has not been much to get excited about either way, but under the surface there is a tell-tale sign of weakness and basically for all intents and purposes a hidden bear market.

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6. Utilities: Turns out Utilities… have utility in a down market.

(and extra informative that they are outperforming while bond yields are surging)

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7. Agribusiness on the move: Agribusiness ETF breaking out vs the S&P500 after an extended period of chewing its cud, so to say.

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8. Supply/Cost Problems: The supposedly transitory problems of supply chain disruption/shortages/covid/rising costs are still to this day very clearly a major problem for business, based on what companies are saying during their earnings calls.

Source: FactSet

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9. Economic Forecaster: The famous and clever Economist, Dr S&P500, is forecasting a slump in the ISM manufacturing PMI.

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10. Asset Valuations: Commodities the least dirty shirt?

Source: @topdowncharts from The 12 Charts to Watch in 2022 [Q2 Update]

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BONUS CHART >> got to include a goody for the goodies who subscribed.

Cyclicals vs Defensives: US cyclicals vs defensives have pushed deeper into new lows. Similarly, the gradual decline for EAFE has accelerated, and EM appear to have put in a lower high. All-up, around the world, cyclicals vs defensives have gone from a source of strength to a source of weakness.

And when you zoom out at the global level it looks very clear: this is not a bullish chart. At best maybe markets go sideways, but this is not a situation where the macro/value backdrop is at best (expensive valuations, high inflation, stumbling growth, tightening monetary policy).

We’ve just been through a period of historical excess, and as the tides come in, so do they go out. Sorry if this is too bearish for you, but I just look at the charts and say what I see. When the facts change, my opinion will change.