Economic reports in the week ahead
Investors face a holiday-shortened next week that could see lighter trading volume. The highlight of the economic calendar looks be the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. While that meeting took place before the release of the October CPI report, the market could see a jolt when hawkish tone of members is seen in black and white. Earnings will still trickle in with Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and DICK’s Sporting Goods (DKS) from the consumer sector some of the headliners. Watch for some cautious guidance updates with plenty of macro uncertainty in the air. On Wall Street, Citi U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert has already warned of a “consumer-led recession” in 2023, which could be amplified even more if the retail heavyweights continue to reel in expectations. On the global stage, the World Cup could have impact on certain sectors and select stocks as the soccer tournament plays out.
Earnings spotlight: Monday, November 21 J.M. Smucker (SJM), Weber (WEBR), Agilent (NYSE:A), Dell (DELL) and Urban Outfitters (URBN), and Zoom Video (NASDAQ:ZM).
Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, November 22 Baidu (BIDU), Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), DICK’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), HP Inc. (HP), and Autodesk (ADSK).
Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, November 23 – Deere (DE) and Guess (GES).
Earnings spotlight: Friday, November 25 – Titan Machinery (NASDAQ:TITN).
IPO watch: Medical device maker Marizyme (OTCQB:MRZM) has downsized a proposed initial public offering that could start trading on the Nasdaq. The quiet period ends on Mobileye Global (NASDAQ:MBLY) to free up analyst to post ratings on the autonomous driving tech specialist. The IPO lockup period expires on a block of shares for Singing Machine (MICS).
Black Friday preview: The traditional shopping event has a different looks this year with the economy struggling and a devastating earnings report from Target (TGT) that included a slash in guidance for the holiday quarter raising the stakes with investors looking for readouts on consumer spending trends. While many big-box retailers, department stores and outlet malls are sticking with the recent trend of being closed on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday is expected to see much more foot traffic than in the COVID years. Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts sales will be up 15% on Black Friday from a year ago due in part to boost in foot traffic from the recent COVID-influenced comparisons. Mastercard SpendingPulse tipped department store chains will shine with sales seen being up nearly 25% year-over-year. “While retailers have already been heavily discounting this season, consumers and retailers are likely holding out for some special offers to land on the biggest promotional day of the year,” noted Mastercard advisor Steve Sadone. Also look for the restaurant sector to have a strong Black Friday weekend with 35% year-over-year growth forecast. Restaurant spending was surprisingly strong in the October retail sales report despite the higher pricing across the industry. Two stocks being watched closely for anecdotal reports of sales and consumer interest are Hasbro (HAS) and Mattel (MAT) after Target pointed to weak toy demand with its Q3 earnings update. As for the holiday season in general, Wells Fargo tipped that weathet could be a significant factor. Temperatures in the U.S. are forecast to be colder year-over-year over the next 45 days, which has positive correlation to sales for some retailers and brands. In particular, watch for Canada Goose (GOOS), Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL), and G-III Apparel Group (GIII) to benefit if the cold snap hits.
World Cup: The opening match of the 2022 World Cup is scheduled for November 20 with Qatar playing Ecuador. The soccer tournament will run through December 18 and is expected to attract 5B viewers to make it the most watched sporting event in history. The men’s World Cup will be the first with widespread sports betting legal in the U.S. Covers.com sports betting reporter Geoff Zochonde previewed that the obvious candidates for a World Cup sports betting lift would be DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) and FanDuel (DUEL). He also thinks the World Cup could also be an opportunity for smaller operators in the U.S. that have roots outside the country to showcase deeper betting markets to their American clientele during the tournament. Bet365 and Super Group’s (SGHC) Betway are two betting sports betting shops to watch. Meanwhile, Roundhill Investment’s Will Hershey thinks the World Cup could benefit Entain (OTCPK:GMVHF), as well as European betting stock peers such as Kindred Group (OTC:KNDGF) and 888 Holdings (OTCPK:EIHDF). Looking at the beverage sector, Bank of America tipped that Ambev (NYSE:ABEV) typically sees an incremental boost in beer sales during the World Cup, while Evercore ISI said it sees a big tailwind for Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) this quarter from the global focus on the tournament. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo thinks the unique timing of the World Cup around the holidays sets up well for Electronic Arts (EA). Taking a broader view, Wells Fargo noted one of the winners from the World Cup could be the host nation of Qatar itself. The event is seen having the potential to enhance Qatar’s status on the global stage and make the tiny wealthy nation more influential over economic affairs going forward. Companies with relationships in Qatar include JetBlue (JBLU), ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and TotalEnergies (TTE). Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund is planning to raise its 5% stake in Swiss lender Credit Suisse (CS) by participating in a stock offering.
Corporate events: It is a very light list of events in the week ahead due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. The headliner may be the Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) shareholder meeting set for November 22 to vote on extending the period of time for completing a SPAC deal. DWAC CEO Patrick Orlando has reportedly been calling investors with as few as 20 shares to convince them to vote in favor of a one-year extension to complete a transaction. Shares of DWAC are down more than 75% from their high in March. Shareholders with Angel Pond Holdings (NYSE:POND) are also scheduled to vote on November 22 on the deal to take open source database software player MariaDB public in a SPAC deal. Read about more events scheduled for next in Seeking Alpha’s Catalyst Watch.
Spotlight on beverages: Morgan Stanley advised investors that the beverage sector is a potential shelter from the macroeconomic storm given strong pricing power, limited volume demand elasticity, and a post-COVID topline recovery in away-from-home volume. The firm noted that Q4 U.S. scanner data is looking strong and numerous beverage companies have more robust long-term secular topline growth drivers than other household product stocks. Analyst Dara Mohsenian and team named Monster Beverage (MNST) as its top sector pick off what it sees as strong category growth, an expanding U.S. category with recent healthier products, and international market share gains. The firm also has an Overweight rating on Constellation Brands (STZ) on its view evidence is building for rebounding beer topline growth and strong momentum with key brands Modelo Especial, Corona Extra, and Pacifico. PepsiCo (PEP) is also a favorite of Morgan Stanley. The beverage powerhouse is said to have accelerated organic sales growth at a level that is not yet priced into valuation.
Notable conferences: Notable conference scheduled for the week include the Needham Consumer Tech/E-Commerce Virtual Conference, the TD Securities Technology Conference, and the Cormark Securities Diversified Conference.
Barron’s mentions: The cover story delves into how this holiday shopping season could see retail bifurcation in which lower-end and higher-end stores are the main channels through which Americans shop and the large middle tier of retail sees pressure. Adding weight to the theory, a recent UBS study indicated that for the first since 2014 more Americans were planning to shop for gifts this holiday at discount stores than department stores. The publication sees more near-term upside for Dollar General (DG), TJX Companies (TJX), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), and Walmart (WMT) than Gap (GPS), Kohl’s (KSS), Macy’s (M), and VF Corp. (VFC). Cell tower REITs American Tower (AMT), Crown Castle (CCI), and SBA Communications (SBAC) landed a favorable writeup this week. All three tower REITs are noted to be selling at compelling prices despite showing strong earnings results.
Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters
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