Palantir: 3 Important Takeaways From Alex Karp’s Talk At Aspen (NYSE:PLTR)

Given that he is the leader of arguably the most important defense-related technology company in the Western world today, when Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) CEO Alex Karp speaks, people listen. His recent conversation at the 2022 Aspen Ideas Festival hosted by The Aspen Institute was no exception, where he spoke on the unique challenges confronting the world today and how PLTR is uniquely positioned to solve these problems and generate profits for shareholders in the process.

He touched on all sorts of interesting points, such as how the U.S. and China have different strength in A.I. capabilities (China is by far the world-leader in population monitoring and control A.I. technologies and will likely remain so, whereas the U.S. is the leader in consumer and military-applications A.I. capabilities).

However, it was his comments directly on PLTR that interest us the most as investors, so those will be our focus in this article. In particular, we will focus on three specific statements of his and then conclude by taking a look at PLTR’s valuation to determine if it is worth buying here.

#1. “The Enterprise Software Business Is Structurally Different Than Any Other Business”

During his conversation at Aspen, Mr. Karp said the following:

The enterprise software business is structurally different than any other business. The most important thing in a software business is: what is the quality of your products, how can you build a product that no one else can build, and can you get that product delivered into a market where that product transforms people’s tastes?

Mr. Karp went on to proudly declare that the Gotham business has been so successful over the years because it has effectively changed the tastes of warfighters. Indeed, PLTR appears to have entrenched itself as a mission-critical irreplaceable part of the defense and general government agency digital and data analytics operating infrastructure, leading management to boldly assert on their latest earnings call that:

Our ambition is to be the sixth prime contractor for the U.S. Federal Government, a trusted partner to deliver complex end-to-end integrated hardware and software solutions, building on the legacy of programs that we prime today. But we seek to be the first company to do this as a software prime, using software innovation and our unmatched expertise to deliver new integrated hardware software capabilities faster than the pace of conflict.

However, Mr. Karp did not stop there. He apparently also believes that the company is well on its way to establishing its Foundry (Commercial) business as an indispensable and unmatched part of the corporate world as well, stating:

Our commercial product is the single best product in the world. People will not realize this for another couple of years, because they are in the process of learning what it means to interact with non-thin software that’s largely been built so that you can tell some person on Wall Street that it exists. The products we build, people are beginning to understand them, but they are actually years ahead of their time.

In other words, it is the longer term and transformative nature of PLTR’s products and its approach to product development that Mr. Karp believes is the company’s greatest asset and is what will make it the most important software company in the world. While this means that it may take longer for PLTR to become profitable on a GAAP basis and even to win new customers than it would if it were building its business under a different model and mindset, Alex Karp believes that this approach will lead to much greater dominance and impact over the long-term.

In fact, by refusing to follow the herd in the race to produce the best and/or cheapest version of whatever is popular and profitable today, PLTR positions itself to build products that no one else can build and then is able to introduce them to market in a manner which – once the power and innovative nature of these products are fully understand – changes customer tastes.

#2. “Is this product sticky?”

Alex Karp’s next quote which really stuck out to us was:

Is this product sticky? Is it being reused for similar use cases in a way that is efficient for the customer so that customer and client win. In my business, we have some of the largest purchasers in the world. Why do they pay so much? Because it would cost them $1 billion to build it and they pay $10 million for it.

Not only is PLTR focused on building products that will solve tomorrow’s problems in a transformative manner, but PLTR is also focused on producing products that deliver enormous value to their users. PLTR strives to accomplish this in two ways:

1. That it solves a necessary problem for customers at a cost that is 100 times cheaper than it would be if the company tried to solve it itself.
2. That it also provides them with the capability to solve additional problems with the same tool, providing even further value and ultimately making the product very sticky.

#3. “I am very bullish on Palantir because…”

The third and final Alex Karp quote which really stuck out to us was:

I am very bullish on Palantir because I know of no other company in the world that actually builds software products before they are useful and we have five of the coolest products in the world.

Here has was effectively summarizing the bull case on PLTR in his view. Referring back to the first quote of his that we shared, PLTR’s secret sauce is that it is long-term oriented. Instead of pursuing profits today, PLTR invests aggressively in two things:

1. Building the best teams possible to build and promote its products
2. Developing the best products possible to solve tomorrow’s problems before they appear on everyone else’s radar

What this means is that PLTR will be forever locked in the process of seeking maximum long-term compounding. It will likely never be at a place where it is simply trying to maximize the next quarter’s or even year’s results. Instead, it is toiling today in order to make 2027’s products as transformative and impactful as possible. This alternative approach to building a business is reflective of PLTR’s lengthy tenure as a private company prior to going public and it is refreshing that management seems to be doubling down on this long-term oriented philosophy rather than pivoting towards short-termism in order to try to prop up the stock price. Alex Karp is clearly committed to PLTR for the long-term and is running the company accordingly.

Investor Takeaway

PLTR is a very different technology and software company in both its approach and its mission. It is building software products that utilize data analytics and artificial intelligence techniques to solve tomorrow’s biggest problems for Western and Western-aligned corporations and governments instead of chasing profitability today. This requires a contrarian outlook and considerable focus and patience for management and shareholders alike. Given that it is a public company now, the need for focus and patience is even greater. As a result, it was refreshing to hear Alex Karp double down on this perspective in this conversation.

With a total addressable market that is already well over $120 billion and likely to exceed $200 billion in the coming years, PLTR’s upside is tremendous. As a result, analyst consensus estimates that it will be able to grow its revenue at a 30.6% CAGR through 2026 seem very achievable, particularly with the accelerating effect that soaring geopolitical tensions have likely had (and will have) on the demand for PLTR’s products from government agencies.

Assuming that PLTR’s EBITDA margins can expand slightly to ~30% thanks to improving economies of scale and its EV/EBITDA ratio settles at ~25x, we believe investors could be in store for impressive annualized returns over the next four and a half years. A 25x EV/EBITDA multiple and a 30% EBITDA margin with 30.6% revenue growth through 2026 would put the share price at ~$43.50 at year-end 2026. This would result in ~40% annualized total returns, making PLTR a Strong Buy and giving it plenty of margin of safety, should it fall short of these projections.