“Now that you have the ambrian rearch report at hand:
http://www.elixirpetroleum.com/assets/30/0004_Ambrian Elixir 4Q 2005.pdf
The first thing to notice is the seismic crossection of Jaguar with clear directional faulting. It looks like the Brent layer has been pushed one on top of the other, in effect giving two shots or double the thickness of Brent sandstone. We don’t have a scale but it must be of sigificant thickness to have been given a potential of up to 450mmbbls. There are clearly multiple horizons to be targeted in the Brent layers here.
If you look at the simplified seismic model (and remember the Norwegian’s got the full seismic data not just these snap shots) you see the over lying kimmeridge oil shale present in all of the surround wells, overlying the upper jurassic and brent sandstone layers. The kimmeridge is clearly the source rock in the other wells, its has been faulted into a higher position in this well. All of the other wells in the area have the same overlying shale and the Brent sandstone oil reservoir. I’m hopeful of the potential of the Brent layer in this well, with the Upper Jurassic as an unknown.
There was a doubt over the porosity in the Brend and upper Jurassic layers, look at the snap shot of the acoustic impedance analysis. The red areas will be those of highest porosity. It is clear that there are areas of high porosity in that small snap shot, interesected by non-porous (shale and siltstone) layers. From what I’ve seen there is a good posibility of multiple sandstone layers divided by oil shale.
While this is a high risk expo well, there is nothing certain especially with strat traped oil, they’ve limited their risk by:
Advanced seismic, typical of high cost north sea drilling. Oil on four sides of this strat trap (separated off by faulting). A clearly identified Shale and sandstone layer corresponding with the local oil wells. A large strat trap lying on one of the most oil prolific fairways of the north sea, that have all produced from the same sanstone layer (Brent). The buzzard field not much more than a stones throw away (clearly good exploration potential in the area). Norwegian’s that are so impressed by the full data that they want in and will pay 92.5% of the costs of this well.
Not for widows nor orphans, but from what I’ve seen initially I’m happy to be here with a decent amount of my cash. With a tiny cap and only small financial exposure to this well ELP looks like an attractive risk reward scenario. Downside $1.1m approximately down the loo, upside a significant oil pay in the brent sandstone. You pays your money and you takes your chances. All imo, DYOR etc etc.
Regards,
Ed. “
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