Technical Outlook:
EUR/USD continues to try and mount a rally from the long-term trend-line extending back to 1985 if you rebuild the euro prior to its existence from its current constituents. Even without it the line is 20 years old. Either way it is big, and the fact the Euro can’t trade off it is a significant warning sign.
Given the way it has been acting if the line is to break it shouldn’t be too long from now before it does so. The level to watch is 10635, the March low. A break below there should start to give EUR/USD some separation with the January 2017 low at 10340 up next as support, and then finally parity could be reached. The thinking is the Euro could go much lower, but we’ll take it one step at a time.
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EUR/USD Daily Chart (limited buying off major trend-line)
EUR/USD Long-term Chart (35-yr trend-line)
USD/CAD hasn’t been acting as many have expected given the extreme volatility in the oil market, but overall the price action still smacks of corrective since the Q1 surge. The back-and-forth grind lower suggests buyers at every step of the way. In April 13850/55 marked two lows. This will be used in the near-term as a guide.
The result of the decline off the March high may be a wedge, which once fully built and triggered could lead to another surge in price towards the 14600 area that stalled the last rally. The feeling is on this end that at some point that will be hurdled and a move to the 16000 area will develop. For now, some patience will be needed before running with a strong trading bias.
USD/CAD Daily Chart (digesting Q1 run)
For all the charts we looked at, check out the video above…
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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