Elena Perova
Purpose
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.” In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators.
A Note on Methodology
Data is presented in a “just the facts, ma’am” format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.
Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked.
A few items (e.g., Financial Conditions indexes, regional Fed indexes, stock prices, the yield curve) have their own metrics based on long-term studies of their behavior.
Where data is seasonally adjusted, generally it is scored positively if it is within the top 1/3 of that range, negative in the bottom 1/3, and neutral in between. Where it is not seasonally adjusted, and there are seasonal issues, waiting for the YoY change to change sign will lag the turning point. Thus I make use of a convention: data is scored neutral if it is less than 1/2 as positive/negative as at its 12-month extreme.
With long leading indicators, which by definition turn at least 12 months before a turning point in the economy as a whole, there is an additional rule: data is automatically negative if, during an expansion, it has not made a new peak in the past year, with the sole exception that it is scored neutral if it is moving in the right direction and is close to making a new high.
For all series where a graph is available, I have provided a link to where the relevant graph can be found.
Recap of monthly reports
September data included flat retail sales, which declined in real terms. Consumer inflation returned, and core inflation made new highs – due virtually entirely to the fictitious, and badly lagging, entity of “owners’ equivalent rent.” Producer prices increased at a more attenuated rate, indeed the lowest YoY pace in over a year, and the lowest 3 month pace since 2020. Consumer sentiment as measured by the U. Of Michigan continued its recent rebound, but the future conditions subindex declined.
Long leading indicators
Interest rates and credit spreads
Rates
- BAA corporate bond index 6.25%, up +0.26 w/w (1-yr range: 3.13-6.25)(10 year+ high)
- 10-year Treasury bonds 4.02%, up +0.13 w/w (1.08-4.02) (12 year high)
- Credit spread 2.23%, up +0.13 w/w (1.65-4.31)
(Graph at Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield | FRED | St. Louis Fed )
Yield curve
- 10 year minus 2 year: -0.49%, up +0.06% w/w (-0.52 – 1.59)
- 10 year minus 3 month: +0.30%, down -0.21% w/w (0.04 – 2.04)
- 2 year minus Fed funds: +1.43%, up +0.23% w/w
(Graph at 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity | FRED | St. Louis Fed )
30-Year conventional mortgage rate (from Mortgage News Daily) (graph at link)
- 7.10%, down -0.02% w/w (2.75-7.14) (new 10 year high intraweek)
Corporate bonds are at the top of their 10 year range, so negative. Treasury bonds and mortgage rates are also at 10 year peaks, so their rating is also negative.
The spread between corporate bonds and Treasuries remains positive. The yield curve at the important 2 to 10 year level remains inverted – at one of the worst levels since 2000 – so is negative. The 3 month-10 year spread has varied between neutral and positive for the last two months, and was positive again this week.
Housing
Mortgage applications (from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
- Purchase apps down -2% w/w to 170 (170-349) (SA)
- Purchase apps 4 wk avg. down -8 to 185 (SA) (341 high Jan 29, low 185 this week)
- Purchase apps YoY -39% (NSA)
- Purchase apps YoY 4 wk avg. -34% (NSA)
- Refi apps down -2% w/w (SA)
- Refi apps YoY down -86% (SA) (lowest since 2000)
*(SA) = seasonally adjusted, (NSA) = not seasonally adjusted
(Graph at Yardeni.com)
Real Estate Loans (from the FRB)
- Up +0.1% w/w
- Up +9.5% YoY (-0.9 – 9.5)
(Graph at Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks | FRED | St. Louis Fed)
The highest mortgage rates in 12 years have killed both purchase and refinance mortgage applications, the four week averages of which continue at or close to 6 and 20 year lows, respectively. We have seen this feed into all of the monthly housing sales and construction reports, and in the past several months, into prices, which almost certainly peaked during the summer.
From 2018 until late in 2020 real estate loans with few brief exceptions stayed positive. Earlier last year they varied between neutral and negative, but for the past several months have been very positive. This is being helped by inflation in house prices; thus the turn in the indicator will be when that cools.
Money supply
The Federal Reserve has discontinued this weekly series. Data is now only released monthly. August data was released two weeks ago:
- M1 m/m down -0.3%, YoY Real M1 down -4.7%
- M2 m/m unchanged, YoY Real M2 down -4.1% (40 year low)
No recession has happened without a YoY real M1 negative, or YoY real M2 below +2.5%. Real M2 fell below that threshold in March. Real M1 also turned negative as of May.
Corporate profits (Q2 actual and Q3 actual + estimated S&P 500 earnings from I/B/E/S via FactSet at p. 27)
- Q2 2022 actual unchanged at 56.87, up 5.3% q/q
- Q3 7% actual +93% estimated down -0.50 to 54.83, down -3.6% q/q
FactSet estimates earnings, which are replaced by actual earnings as they are reported, and are updated weekly. The “neutral” band is +/-3%. I also average the previous two quarters together, until at least 100 companies have actually reported. With Q3 included, the average is +1.3%, which means this indicator is neutral.
Credit conditions (from the Chicago Fed) (graph at link)
- Financial Conditions Index unchanged (loose) at -0.06 (-0.09 – -0.72)
- Adjusted Index (removing background economic conditions) down -0.09 ( loose ) to -0.01 (+0.19 – -0.75)
- Leverage subindex up +0.13 (more tight) to +0.26 (+0.81 – -0.39)
In these indexes, lower = better for the economy. The Chicago Fed’s Adjusted Index’s real break-even point is roughly -0.25. In the leverage index, a negative number is good, a positive poor. The historical breakeven point has been -0.5 for the unadjusted Index. Leverage is at its highest since the Great Recession, obviously very negative.
Short leading indicators
Economic Indicators from the late Jeff Miller’s “Weighing the Week Ahead”
- Miller Score (formerly “C-Score”): down -28 w/w to 212, -81 m/m (125 6/24/22 – 411 on 10/22/21)
- St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index: down -0.0043 to -1.2161 (-2.1880 8/5/22 – -0.0609 12/3/21)
- BCIp from Georg Vrba: unchanged at 74.7 iM’s Business Cycle Index (100 is max value, below 25 is recession signal averaging 20 weeks ahead)
The Miller Score is designed to look 52 weeks ahead for whether or not a recession is possible. Any score over 500 means no recession. This number fell below that threshold at the beginning of August 2021, so not only is it negative, but we are now in the “recession eligible” time period.
The St. Louis Financial Stress index is one where a negative score is a positive for the economy, and during its limited existence, has risen above zero before a recession by less than one year. Thus the present reading is also a strong positive for the economy.
Trade weighted US$
- Down -0.18 to 127.46 w/w, +11.2% YoY (last week) (broad) (113.63 – 128.58) (Graph at Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (all time high one week ago)
- Up +0.46 to 113.25 w/w, up +20.5% YoY (major currencies) (graph at link) (93.28-114.78)
In early 2021, both the broad rating and the USD against major currencies turned higher YoY, and so changed to neutral. With both measures now well above +5% YoY, these ratings are negative.
Commodity prices
Bloomberg Commodity Index
- Down -3.47 to 113.67 (79.11-135.43)
- Up +8.5% YoY (Best: +52.3% June 4)
(Graph at BCOM | Bloomberg Commodity Index Overview | MarketWatch )
Bloomberg Industrial metals ETF (from Bloomberg) (graph at link)
- 146.53, down -0.87 w/w (131.43-230.32)
- Down -17.8% YoY (Best +69.0% May 7)
During the Boom last year, commodity prices soared, and total commodities were very positive. This week total commodities (which include oil) declined to the middle 1/3rd of their range, so turned neutral again. The decline in industrial metals has put that indicator in the bottom 1/3rd of its 52 week range, so a negative.
Stock prices S&P 500 (from CNBC) (graph at link)
Since January 3 of this year, there have been ongoing new 3 month and even 1 year lows, and no 3 month highs, so this indicator has been a negative — until six weeks ago, when stocks made a new 3 month high. Since in the past 3 months we have had both, this indicator has switched to neutral.
Regional Fed New Orders Indexes
(*indicates report this week) (no reports this week)
- Empire State up +33.3 to +3.7
- Philly down -12.5 to -17.6
- Richmond up +9 to -11
- Kansas City up +5 to -11
- Dallas down -2.0 to -6.4
- Month-over-month rolling average: up +2 to -8
The regional average is more volatile than the ISM manufacturing index, but usually correctly forecasts its month-over-month direction. These had usually been extremely positive ever since June 2020, but in the last several months have fallen, and precipitously so in the past three months. The indicator having fallen below -5, it turned negative.
Employment metrics
Initial jobless claims
- 228,000, up +9,000 w/w
- 4-week average 211,500, up +5,000 w/w
(Graph at St. Louis FRED)
New claims made new all-time lows on a 4 week average in April. Once this metric failed to make a new 3 month low, its rating has changed to neutral. It will not turn negative unless and until the 4 week average is higher YoY. It was declining for 6 weeks before reversing higher in the past 2 weeks.
Temporary staffing index (from the American Staffing Association) (graph at link)
- Up +1 to 107 w/w
- Up +5.5% YoY (18 month low)
This gradually improved to neutral at the beginning of 2021, and has been positive since then. There is a great deal of seasonality in the numbers, which typically rise slowly throughout the year except for certain holiday periods. This index is still rising slowly for this year, but the comparisons are now much more weakly positive.
Tax Withholding (from the Dept. of the Treasury)
- $229.7 B for the last 20 reporting days this year vs. $219.6 B one year ago, +$10.1 B or +4.6%
YoY comparisons turned positive in the beginning of 2021, and have remained that way almost every week since. The YoY% change fell below 5% several times in the past several months, making it a neutral, but then it once again rebounded. For three weeks it was negative YoY, but returned to neutral two weeks ago.
Oil prices and usage (from the E.I.A.)
- Oil down -$6.85 to $85.79 w/w, up +16.9% YoY ($62.32 – $123.70)
- Gas prices up +$.13 to $3.91 w/w, up $0.59 YoY
- Usage 4-week average down -5.5% YoY
(Graphs at This Week In Petroleum Gasoline Section – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) )
Gas prices rebounded into the middle 1/3rd of their 3 year range, and so have returned to neutral. Oil has also rebounded in the past several weeks, but is in the middle of its 3 year range, and so it remains neutral.
Mileage driven has improved with the recent decline in gas prices. Gas usage hasn’t yet, but the YoY comparisons have improved in the past few weeks.
Note: With gas and oil prices so volatile in the past 12 months, I believe the best measure is against their 3 year average. Measuring by 1 year, both are also neutral.
Bank lending rates
- 0.496 TED spread down -0.042 w/w (0.02 -.685)
- 3.410 LIBOR up +0.110 w/w (0.0753- 2.830) (graph at link) (new multi-year high)
TED was above 0.50 before both the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Since early 2019 the TED spread had remained positive, except the worst of the coronavirus downturn, until earlier this spring. Since several months ago it has been generally turning neutral, and then negative. It has been very choppy recently, and this week declined back into neutral range.
LIBOR has been increasing consistently well into its negative range.
Coincident indicators
St. Louis FRED Weekly Economic Index
- Up +0.12 to +2.19 w/w (+1.62 9/23/22 – +7.01 9/11/21)
In the 5 years before the onset of the pandemic, this Index varied between +.67 and roughly +3.00. Just after the Great Recession, its best comparison was +4.63. After a very positive 2021, it declined to less than half its best YoY level, thus changing to neutral.
Restaurant reservations YoY (from Open Table)
- October seven day average unchanged YoY (Best +31% Oct 21)
- October 14 seven day average +1% YoY (Worst -29% Jan 13)
The comparison year for this metric is 2019 and not 2021. This year the metric gradually improved to neutral, and last week, went positive. But this week the comparison changes back to neutral.
Note I am now measuring its 7 day average to avoid daily whipsaws.
Consumer spending
- Johnson Redbook up +8.3% YoY (high 21.4% on Dec 28, 2021; low 8.3% Aug 12) United States Redbook Index – 2022 Data – 2005-2021 Historical – 2023 Forecast
In April 2020 the bottom fell out in the Redbook index. It has remained positive almost without exception since the beginning of 2021. This week is the lowest YoY comparison in many months; further, it is over 50% below its high reading in the past year. The new link I have added above goes to a 5 year graph to best show the comparison.
Therefore, for the first time in several years, I am downgrading this metric to neutral. If it falls below 5%, I will downgrade it to negative.
Transport
Railroads (from the AAR)
- Carloads down -2.8% YoY
- Intermodal units down -2.0% YoY
- Total loads down -2.4% YoY (Best +34.0% April 23, 2021)
(Graph at Railfax Report – North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report )
Shipping transport
- Harpex down -253 to 1503 (1503 – 4586) Harpex (18 month low)
- Baltic Dry Index down -174 to 1818 (1002-5650) (graph at link)
Rail carloads turned positive early in 2021, before gradually fading to negative from August through the end of the year and the beginning of this year. The total loads index has been consistently negative for the past four months. In the past two months, with both carloads and total loads turning positive, rail turned neutral, and last week positive, but declined to neutral again this week.
Harpex increased to near record highs again earlier this year, but has since backed off all the way to new lows. BDI has traced a similar trajectory, warranting a change to negative.
I am wary of reading too much into price indexes like this, since they are heavily influenced by supply (as in, a huge overbuilding of ships in the last decade) as well as demand.
Steel production (American Iron and Steel Institute)
- Up +1.2% w/w
- Down -8.5% YoY
Since the end of March 2021, against terrible comparisons, this metric had been positive, typically running at a double digits higher YoY percentage growth. This spring, after almost continuous deterioration, it turned negative, and has remained so.
Summary And Conclusion
Below are this week’s spreadsheets of the long leading, short leading, and coincident readings. Check marks indicate the present reading. If there has been a change this week, the prior reading is marked with an X:
| Long leading Indicators | Positive | Neutral | Negative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate bonds | ✓ | |||
| 10 year Treasury | ✓ | |||
| 10 yr-2 yr Treasury | ✓ | |||
| 10 yr-3mo Treasury | ✓ | |||
| 2 Yr Treasury-Fed funds | ✓ | |||
| Mortgage rates | ✓ | |||
| Purchase Mtg. Apps. | ✓ | |||
| Refi Mtg Apps. | ✓ | |||
| Real Estate Loans | ✓ | |||
| Real M1 | ✓ | |||
| Real M2 | ✓ | |||
| Corporate Profits | ✓ | |||
| Adj. Fin. Conditions Index | ✓ | |||
| Leverage Index | ✓ | |||
| Totals: | 3 | 1 | 10 | |
| Short Leading Indicators | Positive | Neutral | Negative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Spread | ✓ | |||
| Miller Score | ✓ | |||
| St. L. Fin. Stress Index | ✓ | |||
| US$ Broad | ✓ | |||
| US$ Major currencies | ✓ | |||
| Total commodities | x | ✓ | ||
| Industrial commodities | ✓ | |||
| Stock prices | ✓ | |||
| Regional Fed New Orders | ✓ | |||
| Initial jobless claims | ✓ | |||
| Temporary staffing | ✓ | |||
| Gas prices | ✓ | |||
| Oil prices | ✓ | |||
| Gas Usage | ✓ | |||
| Totals: | 3 | 5 | 6 | |
| Coincident Indicators | Positive | Neutral | Negative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Econ. Index | ✓ | |||
| Open Table | ✓ | |||
| Redbook | x | ✓ | ||
| Rail | ✓ | |||
| Harpex | ✓ | |||
| BDI | ✓ | |||
| Steel | ✓ | |||
| Tax Withholding | ✓ | |||
| TED | ✓ | X | ||
| LIBOR | ✓ | |||
| Financial Cond. Index | ✓ | |||
| Totals: | 0 | 6 | 5 | |
All three timeframes of indicators are negative. There were two important differences this week. Temporary staffing declined to a weak positive for the first time in over 2 years. But more importantly, consumer spending, as represented by the Redbook index, declined to its lowest YoY reading in two years as well, turning neutral. It may be an artifact of Columbus Day, but if it persists, it is a very important marker that consumers may finally be throwing in the towel.
If employment and consumption are beginning to roll over, then a recession may be getting close indeed. Meanwhile the Fed is chasing the lagging, phantom menace of Owner Equivalent Rent (which tells us what the costs of shelter were doing 12 or more months ago), despite the fact that every other inflation measure – including core CPI less shelter – has peaked. Hiking rates into a recession will only make it deeper and probably longer.
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