Key Talking Points:
- BTC/USD continues to move away from all-time-high
- A symmetrical triangle pattern confirms momentum is building, but in which direction?
CONSOLIDATION AS MOMENTUM BUILS
Bitcoin has tried to hold on to gains over the last week but has been unable to keep bullish momentum going. The cryptocurrency is down 3% at the time of writing, and 19% off from the highs seen on January 8th. We saw an attempted bearish run on Wednesday afternoon but price reversed at the 33,400 mark, meaning this is now an area of interest to see if sellers gain further momentum to bring BTC/USD back down to 30,000.
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If we look at the daily chart, we can see how the market is consolidating whilst building momentum around current levels in an attempt to break in either direction, reinforced by the appearance of a symmetrical triangle. I expect the need to see a further pullback before we see significant bullish momentum build, which would then be a good time for new buyers to enter the market and push prices higher again.
BITCOIN LEVELS
To the downside, a break below the lower bound of the symmetrical triangle leaves BTC/USD exposed to the 38.2% Fibonacci (32,153) of the recent surge from 16,000 to 42,000. This area served as support both on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, and has been the lowest point since then. If it doesn’t hold, a break below the January 11thlow (30,310) may ignite a bullish run to bring Bitcoin below 30,000, although one must be wary of a “buy the dip” mentality which would see quick price reversals despite the trend.
To the upside, the 23.6% Fibonacci (35,916) has been an interesting area of price action lately, acting both as a support and resistance, which likely means that investors are focusing highly on this level as an inflection point. A push above this are may see BTC/USD back above 40,000, although the upper bound of the symmetrical triangle (37,770) may offer some short-term resistance. A push above all-time-high at 42,000 would likely send price on another bullish run towards the 50,000 mark.
BTC/USD Daily chart
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— Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Market Analyst
Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin
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