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Sea Limited: Cutting Costs Again
Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) CEO Forrest Li stunned the market with a pre-Christmas internal memo highlighting more belt-tightening measures were underway. Accordingly, investors would have expected the company to have instituted most of its cost-cutting efforts.
However, with Li telegraphing salary freezes and bonus cuts, investors need to parse whether Sea Limited is on track to meet the guidance it proffered at its Q3 earnings call.
As a reminder, the company guided toward adjusted EBITDA breakeven for Shopee (Sea Limited’s e-commerce arm) exiting Q4’23. As such, the company is under significant pressure to deliver, even as macroeconomic headwinds in Asia have likely worsened.
Notwithstanding, Li also took the opportunity to calm investors’ nerves over its unprofitable business model, as he accentuated: “I want to assure you we will be starting 2023 on stable footing. Most of the big changes we need to make are complete.”
Asia’s Economies Facing More Headwinds In 2023
Recent cost-cutting measures by Southeast Asia’s leading delivery and ride-hailing companies GoTo (GOTO-INDONESIA) and Grab Holdings (GRAB) suggested that all’s not well in the region as it grapples with slower growth.
The Asian Development Bank also downgraded Asia’s GDP growth outlook for 2023, as the region is impacted by “a global slowdown and the prolonged war in Ukraine.”
Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong cautioned in his New Year’s Eve message to the nation to expect potentially slower growth in 2023, emphasizing that “[Singapore’s] economy will be affected.”
As such, we believe Sea Limited’s near-term challenges have likely intensified as macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds from the US and Europe seep into Asia.
Alibaba-backed Lazada Getting Ready To Strike
However, the silver lining is China’s growth algorithm could be improved as it emerges from its post-reopening COVID resurgence, likely to peak during the Chinese New Year. Notwithstanding, that could also intensify Shopee’s competition against Alibaba-backed Lazada (BABA).
Notably, Lazada snagged another round of investment from Alibaba in December, as BABA pumped in more than $1.6B to Lazada in 2022. We believe Alibaba is ready to take on Sea Limited more aggressively in 2022 as China emerges from its lockdowns, dealing Forrest Li with another significant challenge.
Chinese authorities have highlighted that the harsh clampdowns on its leading Internet companies could be over as China looks to stoke domestic consumption and industrial growth as export growth is expected to remain tepid in 2023 due to global macro headwinds.
Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang also accentuated his optimism in his New Year message to his employees, as he articulated:
The key word for the new year prospects I wrote down earlier this year is ‘firm and stable’… as we begin 2023, I hope the key word for the new year will be ‘advance.’ As the country enters a new phase of living with COVID, and as the country points out the future direction of the platform economy, we are more convinced that the only way to solve many of the problems we encounter today is to develop ourselves – Nikkei Asia
Hence, we believe it’s clear that Sea Limited is under immense pressure to move away from its unprofitable business model, as SE was ruthlessly taken apart by sellers over the past year.
As such, SE nearly round-tripped its COVID gains at its November bottom. However, a robust Q3 release, coupled with Li bringing back Shopee’s guidance to reach profitability, likely attracted buyers.
Hence, the critical question facing investors is whether they have firm conviction that Shopee could execute well after the recent measures but impeded by macro headwinds.
Notwithstanding, Garena could have a better year in 2023, as Newzoo estimates suggest that the decline in 2022 in the gaming market should stabilize. Notably, growth is expected to reaccelerate through 2025, as it articulated:
The lockdown years may have pushed the games market to unsustainable levels of revenue, especially in the current economic climate, but the coming years look promising. We forecast the games market to grow from $179.1 billion in 2020 to $211.2 billion by 2025, growing at a +3.4% CAGR. – Newzoo
Takeaway
SE has pulled back more than 30% from its December highs toward its recent lows. As such, we believe the reward/risk has improved as SE moves toward oversold zones.
We were waiting for a deeper pullback but assessed that SE could consolidate constructively here. Therefore, buyers who missed its November lows can consider adding more positions at the current levels.
However, as SE remains unprofitable, any position should be considered speculative.
Rating: Speculative Buy (Revise from Hold)
Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
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