Of 106 July 10%+Yield Dividend Stocks, All But 4 Primed To Buy

Foreword

A reader of August 2019’s high-yield, low priced dividend dog list called it, “dangerous advice”. Hence, this information is to be used at your own risk.

I have always advised that high dividends portend high risk. Combine that signal with a low-price offer and you have the stuff of legends and horror stories. Especially in light of YCharts’ declaration that YCharts allows a dividend yield to persist for 365 days after the most recent reported dividend if a dividend is cut. Therefore a few line items you see calculated here could be totally inaccurate. (Most of the time YCharts withholds forward yield projections when a dividend is cut… but not always.)

These 106 July selected stocks reported total annual returns ranging from 3.32% to 451.84%. Any candidates this month showing yields greater than 26% were removed because their dividends are the most likely to be cut or curtailed. I did nothing about Chinese-based high yielders but China has announced a preference for home-grown investors and could ban Chinese corporations from international stock market listings in the future.

Another caveat holds for Russian listings. With Putin’s war with Ukraine raging, the price drop in Russian stocks sent yields over 21% and thus off this list this month. Raising the market cap from $100M to $200M, and not listing stocks with negative price returns kept the list at the last two months and kept ARR and AGNC and other regulars off this listing. This July list is up to 106 and August will generate a new list. Maybe those missing will become positive in price returns and rejoin the pack. More sickly dogs will collect here.

Happy hunting, and beware of the numbers put up from the top ten by yield on this list of 106. In short, this is risky business. These are Dogs of the Low, not of the Dow. These dogcatcher metrics are set to snag the most unloved and unpopular curs as a contrarian stock selection strategy.

Meanwhile, all but four of the 106 stocks on this list show dividends from a $1K investment greater than their single share prices. Some investors find this condition to be an invitation to, at least, look closer.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Calculated 49.45% To 103.39% Net Gains For The Top Ten 10%+ Yield Stocks As Of July 11, 2023

Four of those ten top-yield 10%+ Yield stocks (tinted in the list below) were among the top-ten gainers for the coming year, based on analyst 1-year targets. Thus, this forecast, as graded by Wall St. Brokers, was 40% accurate.

Dividends from $1,000 invested in the highest-yielding stocks and the median of analyst-estimated one-year target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2022-23 data points for the following estimates. Note: one-year target prices from lone analysts were not applied (n/a). Ten estimated profit-generating trades to July 11, 2023 were:

Intesa Sanpaolo (OTCPK:ISNPY) was projected to net $1033.87, based on dividends plus the median of prices estimated by two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 26% over the market as a whole.

Himax Technologies Inc (HIMX) was projected to net $1,003.46 based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 73% over the market as a whole.

BNP Paribas (OTCQX:BNPQY) was projected to net $995.95, based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from four analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 1% greater than the market as a whole.

Braskem SA (BAK) netted $985.33 based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from four brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 96% over the market as a whole.

MFA Financial Inc (MFA) was projected to net $877.28 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 63% over the market as a whole.

Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd (GNK) was projected to net $790.34, based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from six brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 3% under the market as a whole.

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc (EGLE) was projected to net $777.36, based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from six brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 41% greater than the market as a whole.

Star Bulk Carriers Corp (SBLK) was projected to net $686.54 based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from six brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 1% under the market as a whole.

Nordea Bank Abp (OTCPK:NRDBY) was projected to net 570.83, based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from two brokers, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for NRDBY.

Newtek Business Services Corp (NEWT) was projected to net $494.53, based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from two analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 14% greater than the market as a whole.

The average net-gain in dividend and price was estimated to be 51.91% on $10K invested as $1K in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 27% greater than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs”.

50/106 Broker Price Target Up/Down-sides

50/73 10%+ Yield Top-Dogs By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Top Ten 10%+Yield July Stock Yields Ranged 19%-25.56%

Top ten 10%+ Yield dogs selected 7/11/22 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors.

First place was earned by the first of four industrials sector stocks in the top ten, Orient Overseas (International) Ltd (OTCPK:OROVY) [1]. The other industrials members placed second, ninth, and tenth, Star Bulk Carriers Corp [2], Golden Ocean Group Ltd (GOGL) [9], and Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd [10].

Then third through fifth places went to financial services members, Addiko Bank AG (OTCPK:ADBKF) [3], Invesco Ltd (IVZ) [4], and KBC Group SA/NV (OTCPK:KBCSY) [5].

Thereafter, one communication services member placed sixth, Tele2 AB (OTCPK:TLTZY)[6], and one basic materials stocks in the top ten, placed seventh Braskem SA [7].

Finally a lone technology member placed eighth, Himax Technologies Inc [8] to complete the 10%+Yield top ten for July 2022-23.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten 10%+Yield Stocks Showed 33.73% To 85.69% Upsides To July 11, 2023 and (31) No Down-siders Hit Negative Notes

To quantify top yield rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Estimated A 7.37% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, Of Ten 10%+ Yield Dogs To July 11, 2023

Ten top 10%+ Yield dogs were culled by yield for this June update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by Yahoo Finance did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten 10%+ Yield dogs selected 7/11/22 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated 5 Lowest-Priced Of Top Ten Highest-Yield 10%+ Yield Dogs (31) Delivering 55.73% Vs. (32) 51.91% Net Gains From All Ten By July 11, 2023

$5,000 invested as $1K in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten 10%+ Yield dogs collection was predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 7.37% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5K in all ten. The fifth lowest priced, Braskem SA, was projected by analysts to deliver the best net gain of 100.35%.

The five lowest-priced top 10%+ Yield stocks as of July 11 were: Tele2 AB; Himax Technologies Inc; Golden Ocean Group; Addiko Bank AG; Braskem SA, with prices ranging from $5.56 to $12.73.

Five higher-priced >10% Yield dogs from July 11 were: Invesco Ltd; Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd; Star Bulk Carriers Corp; KBC Group SA/NV; Orient Overseas (International) Ltd, whose prices ranged from $15.69 to $137.50.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 90% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.

Afterword

Below is the listing (alphabetically by ticker symbol), of all 106 10%+ Yield stocks from YCharts as of 7/11/22.

106 10%+Yield Dogs For July

Note: 102 of the 106 stocks on this list show dividends from a $1K investment greater than their single share prices. Some investors find this condition to be an invitation to buy or, at least, look closer.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your 10% Yield-Priced dividend dog purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Note: my YCharts data supplier makes no warrants regarding their forward looking dividend accuracy. Here is their dividend yield statement: “2) We allow a dividend yield to persist for 365 days after the most recent reported dividend if a dividend is cut. Hence, this data should not be used for backtesting purposes. For true historical testing purposes, one would need the date the company announced a cut or increase in the dividend to get the proper expected dividend yield as of a given date.”

“The forward yield won’t catch changes as there is not an automated method for turning those announcements into that kind of data. A specific use case would require additional over-site after the screening had taken place to catch these instances. I wish there was an easier way, and I will submit feedback, but as of yet this has been how we’ve always done things for lack of a better method.”

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexArb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by YCharts. Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com.