My 25 Stock Retirement Portfolio Gained Significantly In July

It is my firm belief that 80% of money managers can’t outperform the S&P 500 index over time due primarily to the fees they charge their clients. Each and every individual person intent on having the happiest retirement possible could and should take charge of their retirement portfolios and invest in simple index/mutual funds and/or a balanced portfolio like the one I have set up to maximize returns over decades of performance. My ratios and distributions are based on my book – Investing Better Than A Money Manager: The Rise Of Retail Investing.

Past Performance

Here is briefly how my portfolio evolved from its inception when I became more of an active investor in 2014 in the market until now. Notice, I spent several years before 2014 putting some funds into the market now and then at random as I finished school and got married and started a family etc., which I didn’t really follow or record.

Year	Welsh Portfolio	S&P 500
2014	$77,053
2015	$81,233	-0.81%
2016	$91,494	9.64%
2017	$142,363	19.38%
2018	$162,607	-6.29%
2019	$230,093	29.01%
2020	$316,104	16.28%
2021	$402,037	27.04%

Contributions

Contributions make up a vital component of your portfolio, especially when you are starting out, as they are the building blocks of tax advantaged savings for retirement. The more money you have, the more concern you should have with taxes. This is why when you start out investing, you should try to add to accounts like IRAs ASAP instead of putting the money into regular taxable investment accounts.

Contributions	HSA	IRAs	401(k)
Jan 2022	$0	$0	$0
Feb 2022	$0	$0	$500
Mar 2022	$0	$0	$3,760.44
Apr 2022	$0	$0	$500
May 2022	$10,000	$0	$2,000
Jun 2022	$0	$0	5,205.53
Jul 2022	$0	$0	$500
YTD CONTRIBUTIONS	$10,000	$0	$11,965.97

Here is how my portfolio is performing compared to the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) over the first half of 2022.

Fund	SPY	Welsh	Welsh Minus Contributions
% Gain Jan 2022	-5.32%	-8.12%	-8.12%
% Gain Feb 2022	-3.62%	-0.88%	-10.15%
% Gain Mar 2022	3.59%	3.3%	2.3%
% Gain Apr 2022	-9.03%	-6.2%	-6.4%
% Gain May 2022	0.24%	1.3%	-2.09%
% Gain Jun 2022	-9.02%	-6.21%	-7.66%
% Gain Jul 2022	9.91%	13.66%	13.51%
YTD GAINS	-13.25%	-4.78%	-10.25%

Regular contributions to your retirement portfolio help your portfolio to grow even during less than ideal months where you fail to outperform the S&P 500. Not every month will be a winner, but regular contributions can help make anyone’s performance look great over time.

My portfolio is divided up to start 2022 at around 73% stocks and around 27% mutual and index funds with the goal to increase stocks to over 80% of my portfolio over time. My current setup has swayed to 71% domestic exposure and 28% international as I have pushed in a lot of my chips in on Petrobras (PBR). I have about 2.3% of my portfolio in bond mutual funds so that I know how they work and to have at least a little exposure to this sector over time. I plan to have bonds be a very small portion of my portfolio up to right around age 65. Diversification lifts my whole portfolio’s returns over time, so finding the best stocks in every sector is a goal for me each and every year. Here are some of the main changes since my last portfolio article in June of 2022.

Welsh Portfolio	Stocks	Index/Mutual Funds	Bonds	Domestic	International
Jan 2022	73%	27%	2.6%	82%	18%
Feb 2022	74%	26%	2.6%	93%	7%
Mar 2022	74%	26%	2.4%	94%	6%
Apr 2022	75%	25%	2.5%	96%	4%
May 2022	73%	27%	2.5%	62%	38%
Jun 2022	73%	27%	2.6%	77%	23%
Jul 2022	75%	25%	2.3%	71%	28%

Here are the details of my personal ~$382K portfolio then, based on values of approximately $40K, $400K, and $4 million broken down by sectors with brief descriptions of each stock in each sector. The best thing about my portfolio setup is that it is scalable so that people interested in following a similar path can set up their portfolios to follow my path no matter how small or large their holdings are. With fee-free trading and the advent of fractional shares, investors are more capable than ever in setting up amazing portfolios even when starting from scratch.

The Welsh Portfolio

The Information Technology Sector

Aim = 8% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
QCOM	$920	$9,200	$92,000
DELL	$250	$2,500	$25,000
VMW	$270	$2,700	$27,000
AMD	$470	$4,700	$47,000
% Portfolio		6.6%

1. QUALCOMM (QCOM) is a major technology solutions provider for companies like Apple (AAPL) and will be an integral part of upcoming transformational secular revolutions like 5G. Its recent victories against Apple in court have boosted its value as Apple can’t shake the company by trying to make its own chips. I always like to have at least one chip company in my portfolio at all times with a couple never a bad idea.

ACPS = $61.92

2. Dell (DELL) is a legacy holding which continues to aggressively seek M&A opportunities like the value acquisition of the $67B EMC deal and the spin-off of the hybrid cloud giant VMware (VMW) at the end of October 2021, which it formerly owned ~80% of the stock of. Michael Dell is a shareholder winner through and through, and following in his stock footpaths I think is a good long-term decision. The VMware spinoff should allow Dell to deleverage significantly while allowing the free cash flow to hit its remaining debt burden opportunistically before Michael Dell moves on to his next future M&A opportunity. The sale of VMware to Broadcom (AVGO) potentially next year in 2023 could open up Michael Dell and Dell itself to lots of new opportunities now that it can officially cut all ties with VMware besides what is truly mutually beneficial to both parties.

ACPS = $21.52

3. VMware: I acquired VMware as a spin-off from Dell. Now I get to hopefully enjoy it being acquired by Broadcom for ~$61B. I plan at this time to opt in for receiving all Broadcom stock when the deal closes, but that won’t be until 2023 most likely. When I do my IRAs later this year, I might opt in to beef up this position markedly to take advantage of the arbitrage and for future Broadcom shares.

ACPS = $51.57

4. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Bought back into this stock as one of my favorite chip companies at a tremendous value in my opinion as the stock is about half off of 52-week highs. I love the CEO Lisa Su and also its most recent deal to acquire Xilinx for ~$35B which closed early in 2022. AMD continues to bully incumbents like Intel (INTC) relentlessly and I see AMD continuing to eat Intel’s lunch in the coming years as well.

ACPS = $83.68

The Health Care Sector

Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
ARWR	$2,970	$29,700	$297,000
MDT	$370	$3,700	$37,000
PFE	$410	$4,100	$41,000
SMMT	$400	$4,000	$40,000
NVAX	$3,540	$35,400	$354,000
LLY	$90	$900	$9,000
% Portfolio		27.1%

5. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is a permanent large stock position in my portfolio as an RNAi juggernaut entering key Phase 2 and 3 trials in 2022. A lovely balance sheet with key partnerships with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Amgen (AMGN), Takeda (TAK), Horizon (HZNP), and a new ~$1 Billion licensing deal in November of 2021 with GSK (GSK) significantly de-risks its TRiM platform as it continues to expand into additional cell types. Amgen continues to slowly progress Olpasiran (AMG 890), its collaboration candidate with Arrowhead along with a successful Johnson & Johnson update in November 2021 on JNJ-3989 for hepatitis B virus. Takeda will help co-develop and co-commercialize Arrowhead’s lead candidate ARO-AAT preparing Arrowhead for independent commercialization of its wholly owned candidates while it continues to find partners for new candidates like the recently revealed ARO-XDH with Horizon. Arrowhead partnered with GSK for its NASH candidate ARO-HSD, proving once again its TRiM platform is in big demand as it continues to expand its pipeline so fast that it can’t progress all of its candidates by itself as a smaller sub $5B company.

A setback in its ARO-ENaC candidate led to a tremendous buying opportunity in the stock in 2021, which is still in effect in my opinion. ARO-ENaC is neither the company’s lead product nor a very important one in Arrowhead’s ever growing pipeline of candidates. Investors will have gotten an update on Arrowhead’s pulmonary plans at the Pulmonary R&D day on May 26, 2022.

I originally used the ARO-ENaC debacle to expand my shares of Arrowhead from 410 shares up to 530 shares. I expanded my shares in Arrowhead again in January of 2022 by buying an additional 70 shares to bring my total up to 600 shares. I bought an additional 100 shares in May of 2022 bringing me up to 700 total shares. I am fine sitting on my current shares for a while as one of my largest positions especially with a potentially exciting November on the horizon as a big month for new data.

ACPS = $45.56

6. Medtronic (MDT): Health care device maker that I think has significant upside from COVID-19 variants for years to come. Hospitals will need the best equipment companies like Medtronic provides as health issues from COVID-19 could and seem poised to persist for years.

ACPS = $83.13

7. Pfizer (PFE): A healthcare behemoth with a big stake in the fight against COVID-19. Seems like a great potential long-term winner at a great value compared to some of its peers. Brand new deals like its latest ~$3.2B deal with the government mean excess cash flows should continue to shower down on stockholders.

ACPS = $35.86

8. Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) did a very suspicious move in August of 2021 by combining its two Phase 3 blinded pivotal trials for its ridinilazole candidate for clostridioides difficile into one study. This was doable as both studies were at ~ 50% enrollment but were apparently not enrolling fast enough for management’s liking. However, in September 2021, investors found out that this change in the study was not pre-approved by the FDA, so the trial results won’t be enough for the FDA moving forward.

On top of all this, Summit investors found out in late December of 2021 that the company’s data results for its ridinilazole candidate didn’t meet all of the hoped for primary endpoints, resulting in another deep drop in the company’s share price.

Did a massive stock buy in January of 2022 as it settled around $2.00 a share. Went from 850 shares up to 2,850 shares as I think the stock’s upside is attractive now again. With its ability to raise cash on will with Rights Offerings backed by company Chairman and CEO billionaire Robert W. Duggan, with a 70+% ownership of the company, downside risk is markedly mitigated in my opinion.

I started to add shares of Summit again in April of 2022 as it headed south of $2 a share again along with the general continued malaise in the biotech sector. Buying shares around $1 a share now with the company’s latest rights offering on tap to bolster its cash reserves as I move up to 4,000 shares. Not sure at this time if I will be adding shares on the offering or buying additional shares on the market as August rolls around as the share price currently sits below the rights price.

ACPS = $2.78

9. Novavax (NVAX): I see Novavax as a tremendous trade opportunity after the FDA’s advisory committee signed off on the drug which included 21 yes votes with 1 person abstaining. Sounds like a pretty good recommendation to me for the first U.S. approved vaccine not built on an mRNA platform like Moderna’s (MRNA) and Pfizer’s (PFE), but with a protein base. Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine I think has fallen by the wayside with its viral vector but we will see what vaccine companies can put out in September and October for Omicron.

A clear upcoming FDA catalyst in July with a decent probability of success, and a beaten down stock sporting a small ~$3 billion market cap earlier in June 2022, prompted me to pull the trigger and make a big bet on Novavax at around 7% of my total retirement portfolio on June 13th.

I plan on holding on to my Novavax shares until the end of the year to see if it can take Johnson & Johnson’s place as the number 3 vaccine producer in the U.S., and to see how it stacks against the mRNA options which currently dominate. I see huge upside in the future if it can cement its place in the market as a viable booster option, but that remains to be seen. The upcoming Fall data sets will help create winners and losers when the government’s latest vaccine push gets rolling and Novavax has much more to gain than lose in my opinion as a sub ~$5B market cap company.

ACPS = $36.45

10. Eli Lilly (LLY): A favorite healthcare stock of mine that I easily jump back into and rarely sell except when I see big opportunities arise for a short-term trade. Great collection of commercialized drugs and a great developmental pipeline of possibilities including Alzheimer’s candidate donanemab.

ACPS = $322.51

The Communication Services Sector

Aim = 10% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
DIS	$1,160	$11,600	$116,000
GOOGL	$690	$6,900	$69,000
% Portfolio		6.4%

11. Disney (DIS) will crush Netflix (NFLX) in growth over the coming decades in my opinion as its streaming platform continues to grow by leaps and bounds. It is getting pummeled currently along with other streaming names like Netflix as inflation is starting to show effects in markets such as these, and winners and losers are starting to emerge as consumers pick and choose instead of owning everything. Definitely would like to buy more shares at these levels but other stocks are my focus right now.

ACPS = $171.78

12. Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG): One of the FAANG names producing amazing results as always even in a bear market. I have a decent amount of exposure to the FAANG names with my mutual funds, but it is hard to have too much of these juggernauts.

ACPS = $104.94

SOLD: Twitter (TWTR) Sold my Twitter holdings as Elon Musk decided to take Twitter management to court to settle their merger agreement disagreements. For me this flipped the upside potential to downside potential as a failed buyout could mean big trouble for Twitter shares during this downturn in the market. At best I see Musk getting a lower deal price possibly with a very low shot now of him paying full price for Twitter shares though I easily could be wrong in the end. I just don’t feel like taking on this risk especially when court issues could take months to settle out creating a dead money situation that favors no one. I didn’t mind taking a small loss on this trade after making about 4X as much on the deal announcement earlier in the year. C’est la vie.

The Financial Sector

Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
GBTC	$2,660	$26,600	$266,000
HSBC	$240	$2,400	$24,000
% Portfolio		10.1%

13. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is digital gold in my opinion and the future of finance as a potential bedfellow to or eventual replacement of not only the U.S. dollar, but to all fiat money in the coming decades. I plan on holding Bitcoin stock for the next 20+ years and to very rarely if ever sell shares, so month to month performance means little to me at this point. I plan on it being a long-term top 3 stock position in my portfolio at all times and will consider adding significant shares to my position if the coin drops below the $15K level as I just added more shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC) stock in June of 2022 as it hovers around $20k a coin.

ACPS = $27.95

14. HSBC Bank (HSBC) is a legacy holding that might finally see some upside if the United Kingdom can ever get Brexit resolved and new trade opportunities sorted out. That, of course, might be a big if. Looks to be a stock on the chopping block when I do my IRA contributions for 2022.

ACPS = $48.91

The Consumer Discretionary Sector

Aim = 8% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
TSCO	$570	$5,700	$57,000
TSLA	$1,780	$17,800	$178,000
% Portfolio		8.2%

15. Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) quietly continues to perform as one of the best companies in retail, mostly immune to Amazon’s dominance. Its acquisition of Petsense makes a lot of sense now, especially with the explosive growth of everything pet in the wake of COVID-19.

ACPS = $79.76

16. Tesla (TSLA) is a newer position again for me after selling the proceeds from my Twitter trades. It was originally not on my buy list, but Elon Musk selling ~$8.4B of Tesla stock to help fund his upcoming potential purchase of Twitter allowed the high-flying Tesla stock to trade under $800 a share. After a phenomenal earnings report, I’m more than happy to buy back into Tesla’s story as I have made great money on it in the past. An extra large position now as I doubled my stock position in July.

ACPS = $766.12

The Consumer Staples Sector

Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
PG	$530	$5,300	$53,000
PEP	$560	$5,600	$56,000
% Portfolio		3.8%

17. Procter & Gamble (PG) is a legacy holding that sports a decent growing dividend along with many best-in-class brands like Olay, Head & Shoulders, Dawn, and Charmin. Always nice to have some stalwarts for the upcoming recessions and depressions.

ACPS = $92.59

18. PepsiCo (PEP) is a phenomenal drink company with brands like Pepsi-Cola, Gatorade and Tropicana, along with amazing growth in the snack category with Frito-Lay that, in my mind, sets it apart from competitors like Coca-Cola (KO).

ACPS = $106.77

The Industrials Sector

Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
J	$1,230	$12,300	$123,000
SPCE	$270	$2,700	$27,000
% Portfolio		5.2%

19. Jacobs Engineering (NYSE:J) is a legacy holding I have loved for years. A long-time no-debt company that makes super-smart acquisitions. It now has very low-debt and initiated a small dividend which it should be able to grow annually over the coming years like it did in January of 2022 by 10%. Its focus on carbon neutrality and diversity in its workforce makes it a prime target for the younger generation. Jacobs could also experience sustained tailwinds for years due to Biden’s infrastructure and spending bills.

ACPS = $68.41

20. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) looks ripe and tasty for another re-entrance at its current price. I love Virgin Galactic’s volatility as I have made good money in the past buying low and selling high. Commercial space flight for Virgin Galactic looks probable for the beginning of 2023, so it is a long buy-and-hold scenario but one I’m willing to wait on as a small position.

ACPS = $13.21

The Materials Sector

Aim = 12% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400k	$4M
CLF		$400
% Portfolio		0%

21. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is a favorite material stock for me and is a good value again trading about half off of its recent 52-week highs. It is still making money hand-over-fist and has fixed its former debt problems means it can handle the upcoming recession easily enough. Just a teeny tiny position to start as I think it could easily drop more as I slowly build this position back up. I am still hugely overweight in energy and oil so no big hurry to get my materials sector up to previous levels again means I see oil itself as a material.

ACPS = $16.25

The Energy Sector

Aim = 12% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
HAL	$470	$4,700	$47,000
PBR	$7,140	$71,400	$714,000
% Portfolio		26%

22. Halliburton (HAL) is a U.S.-based oil service company that dominates services in the North American market. Small position with no real plans to expand even though it has been on fire to start 2022 but has cooled off lately.

ACPS = $36.48

23. Petrobras (PBR) Petrobras is a dividend legend. Last quarter’s dividend measured out to an ~40% dividend yield when it was announced and this quarter’s dividend announcement at the end of July measured out to around an ~80% dividend yield as Brazil’s government requested an especially juicy dividend before upcoming fall elections. The reason this stock trades at such an incredible value is because of the political uncertainty that has led to value destruction for the company in past years. However, Petrobras has fixed most of its legacy debt issues meaning that its massive dividend is essentially fully financed with cash from the quarter instead of debt fueled. I can’t imagine a more interesting value proposition in the market at this time which is why it continues to be my largest holding even after selling some shares.

Here’s a list of current and upcoming dividends since I made Petrobras a top holding in my portfolio in May of 2022 when I bought 6,450 shares.

Date	Shares owned before Ex-Date	Dividend
Jun 27, 2022	6,450	$4,451.19
July 27, 2022	6,450	$4386.24
Sept, 8, 2022	5,000	~$6,500
Sept 27, 2022	5,000	~$6,500

ACPS= $13.18

The Utility Sector

Aim = 3% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
DUK	$870	$8,700	$87,000
% Portfolio		3%

24. Duke Energy (DUK) A quality utility company and one of the largest in the space making it hopefully one of the safest with an attractive dividend. I put my Petrobras dividends and some extra cash back into this position at the end of July as I had no other buying wants at that time that superseded just building up my reserve buying power again. I’m always ready to sell Duke stock at the drop of a hat if another opportunity arises that I like very much.

ACPS = $107.17

The Real Estate Sector

Aim = 3% of my Stock holdings

Stock	$40K	$400K	$4M
AMT	$850	$8,500	$85,000
% Portfolio		3%

25. American Tower (AMT) is a premier U.S. cell phone tower company aggressively expanding globally across a few more continents. 5G evolution could be a lucrative tailwind for years to come. Can’t think of a reason to add another real estate play, so I just plan to keep adding to this holding over time.

ACPS = $111.38

Bonds (2% of my Stock holdings)

This asset class is currently satisfied by my mutual fund holdings.

My top 10 Holdings and Percentage of my Portfolio

Stock	Sector	% Portfolio
Petrobras	Energy	18.6%
Novavax	Health Care	9.2%
Arrowhead	Health Care	7.6%
Bitcoin	Financials	6.8%
Tesla	Consumer Discretionary	4.5%
Jacobs Engineering	Industrials	3.1%
Disney	Communications Services	2.9%
QUALCOMM	Info Tech	2.4%
Duke Energy	Utilities	2.1%
American Tower	REIT	2.1%
Total % of Portfolio		~59.3%

Stock Watch List:

Stocks I am looking to add to my portfolio or add shares to in the coming months potentially especially with Petrobras dividends.

GBTC, TSLA, SPCE, and VMware.

Best of luck :).