Inspire Medical Repeats Months Ago: Quick Cap-Gain Profit Likely

Investment Thesis

It’s more important to “play the players” than to play “the game”.

Particularly when they have to reveal how they intend to play.

It’s all out there, but few really recognize what’s going on. Yogi once said “You can learn a lot, just by watching.”

So we watch them play every day, and keep score, for over 20 years.

Current Perspective

A 3-5 month prospect from here of INSP share prices could reasonably range from a low of $229 to a high of $283 from its present price of $243, a gain of +16.4%.

The result of 62 positions like today’s in the past 4+ years of 1092 market days was average net gains at +15.9% each during market days (6 weeks) or an annual rate of +250% CAGR.

Those holding periods had worst price draw-downs of only -6.3% and of every 20, 19 were profitable. These odds-on triple-digit investment-rate rewards are far above market average experiences.

This article’s primary focus is on Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (NYSE:INSP).

Description of Primary Investment Candidate

“Inspire Medical Systems, Inc., a medical technology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of minimally invasive solutions for patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the United States and internationally. The company offers Inspire system, a neurostimulation technology that provides a safe and effective treatment for moderate to severe OSA. It also develops a novel, a closed-loop solution that continuously monitors a patient’s breathing and delivers mild hypoglossal nerve stimulation to maintain an open airway. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Golden Valley, Minnesota.”

Source: Yahoo Finance

Risk and Reward Balances Among INSP Competitors

Here are several healthcare equipment industry services like INSP. Following the same analysis as with INSP, historic sampling of their prior Risk-Reward balances like those of today were taken, and are mapped out in Figure 1.

Figure 1

(used with permission)

Expected rewards for these securities are the average gains from current closing market price seen worth protecting short positions. Their measure is on the horizontal green scale.

The risk dimension is of actual price drawdowns at their most extreme point while being held in previous pursuit of upside rewards similar to the ones currently being seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale.

Both scales are of percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose present risk exposure exceeds its reward prospect will be above the dotted diagonal line. Capital-gain attractive to-buy issues are in the directions down and to the right.

Our principal interest is in INSP at location [7], at the lower-right edge of the symbols cluster. A “market index” norm of reward~risk tradeoffs is offered by SPY at [4]. Most appealing (to own) by this Figure 1 view is INSP.

Comparing features of Alternative Investment Stocks

The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every equity investment in the short term. There are other aspects of comparison which this map sometimes does not communicate well, particularly when general market perspectives like those of SPY are involved. Where questions of “how likely” are present, other comparative tables, like Figure 2, may be useful.

Yellow highlighting of the table’s cells emphasize factors important to securities valuations and the security INSP, most promising of near capital gain as ranked in column [R].

Figure 2

(used with permission)

Why do all this math?

Figure 2’s purpose is to attempt universally comparable answers, stock by stock, of a) How BIG the prospective price gain payoff may be, b) how LIKELY the payoff will be a profitable experience, c) how SOON it may happen, and d) what price drawdown RISK may be encountered during its holding period.

Readers familiar with our analysis methods after quick examination of Figure 2 may wish to skip to the next section viewing Price range forecast trends for INSP.

Column headers for Figure 2 define investment-choice preference elements for each row stock whose symbol appears at the left in column [A]. The elements are derived or calculated separately for each stock, based on the specifics of its situation and current-day MM price-range forecasts. Data in red numerals are negative, usually undesirable to “long” holding positions.

Table cells with yellow fills are of data for the stocks of principal interest and of all issues at the ranking column, [R].

The price-range forecast limits of columns [B] and [C] get defined by MM hedging actions to protect firm capital required to be put at risk of price changes from volume trade orders placed by big-$ “institutional” clients.

[E] measures potential upside risks for MM short positions created to fill such orders, and reward potentials for the buy-side positions so created. Prior forecasts like the present provide a history of relevant price draw-down risks for buyers. The most severe ones actually encountered are in [F], during holding periods in effort to reach [E] gains. Those are where buyers are emotionally most likely to accept losses.

The Range Index [G] tells where today’s price lies relative to the MM community’s forecast of upper and lower limits of coming prices. Its numeric is the percentage proportion to the downside of the full low to high forecast seen below the current market price.

The use of prior market actions subsequent to RIs like today make it necessary that those priors be representative of experiences in the just-past 5 year period of 1261 market days. Any RI sample of less than 20 market days could have occurred in one month of 21 market days. Out of the 5 years of 60 months such performance might well be not representative of the whole period.

[H] tells what proportion of the [L] sample of prior like-balance forecasts have earned gains by either having price reach its [B] target or be above its [D] entry cost at the end of a 3-month max-patience holding period limit. [ I ] gives the net gains-losses of those [L] experiences.

What makes INSP most attractive in the group at this point in time is its basic strength of reward to risk ratio of 2.6 to 1 in [T].

Further Reward~Risk tradeoffs involve using the [H] odds for gains with the 100 – H loss odds as weights for N-conditioned [E] and for [F], for a combined-return score [Q]. The typical position holding period [J] on [Q] provides a figure of merit [fom] ranking measure [R] useful in portfolio position preferencing. Figure 2 is row-ranked on [R] among alternative candidate securities, with INSP in top rank.

Along with the candidate-specific stocks these selection considerations are provided for the averages of some 3000+ stocks for which MM price-range forecasts are available today, and 20 of the best-ranked (by fom) of those forecasts, as well as the forecast for S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) as an equity-market proxy.

Current-market index SPY is not competitive as an investment alternative with its Range Index of 38 indicating the other 5/8ths of its forecast range is to the upside, yet not even 3/4ths of previous SPY forecasts at this range index produced profitable outcomes, with enough losers to put its average in single-(whole)digit positive result in column [ I ].

As shown in column [N] of figure 2, those levels in comparison to their row forecasts [E] vary significantly between stocks. What matters is the net profit between investment gains and losses actually achieved following the forecasts, shown in column [I]. The Win Odds of [H] tells what proportion of the Sample RIs of each stock were profitable. Odds below 80% often have proven to lack reliability.

Price range forecast trends for INSP

Figure 3

(used with permission)

No, this is not a “technical analysis chart” showing only historical data. It is a Behavioral Analysis picture of the Market-Making community’s actions in hedging investments of the subject. Those actions define expected price change limits shown as vertical bars with a heavy dot at the closing price on the date of the forecast.

It is an actual picture of experienced market professionals expected future prices, not a simple hope of a recurrence of the past. These expectations are backed up by significant bets of investment capital made to protect market-makers or to earn a proprietary profit from risk-taking.

The special value of such pictures is their ability to immediately communicate the balance of expectation attitudes between optimism and pessimism. We quantify that balance by calculating what proportion of the price-range uncertainty lies to the downside, between the current market price and the lower expected limit, labeled the Range Index [RI].

In this structure a RI at zero indicates no further price decline is likely, but not guaranteed. The odds of 3 months passing without either reaching or exceeding the upper forecast limit or being at that time below the expected lower price (today’s) are quite slight.

The probability function of price changes for INSP are pictured by the (thumbnail) lower Figure 3 frequency distribution of the past 5 years of RI values with the today value indicated.

Conclusion

The multi-path valuations explored by the analysis covered in Figure 2 is rich testimony to the near-future value prospect advantage of a current investment in Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. over and above the other compared alternative investment candidates.