Apple: iPhone Purchasing Intent Up in China, Down in U.S.

By Senad Karaahmetovic

UBS analyst David Vogt has shared results of the global smartphone survey focused on demand.

The four key takeaways concerning Apple (NASDAQ:) are:

1) China iPhone purchase intent was up ~600 bps YoY, reaching its highest level in six years;

2) In the U.S., iPhone purchase intent was down 400 bps YoY, the softest level in two years;

3) Overall iPhone retention rate of 87% is up 100 bps YoY;

4) Support for 5G increased the most YoY followed by a foldable form factor.

For Vogt, the rising iPhone purchase intent in China is a signal that the 13 series is making share gains from local brands.

“Including China, the average iPhone age in the base was roughly 18 months, down from 19 months last year. Stripping out China given a typically faster replacement cycle, the average iPhone age in the base was roughly 19.5 months, flat YoY. The average age of the iPhone base in China declined to 12 months from ~17 months last year, likely reflecting recent share gains at the expense of local brands while the iPhone handset age in the US, UK, Germany and Japan was essentially flat, suggesting Apple did not see a material pull forward of demand in these markets, a modest positive for future demand,” the analyst told clients.

The survey also showed that Apple Watch purchase intent continues to improve.