Mohammad Shadab Alam
US
This week’s main event will be when a little inflation report comes out. The US CPI report for December is expected to show disinflation trends remain firmly in place. The year-over-year CPI reading is expected to cool from 7.1% to 6.6%, while the monthly reading is expected to remain flat.
At the end of the week, the University of Michigan sentiment report is expected to show a modest improvement and could show inflation expectations continue to come down.
Earnings season begins on Friday, and everyone will pay close attention to what the banks say about the economy. Recession calls could get a major boost if JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) turn pessimistic about the consumer.
US politics will dominate weekend headlines as Republicans try to elect a speaker. The House can’t function without a speaker and this impasse has implications for national security-related briefings and oversight.
EU
A quiet week in store with only a few relatively small data points due, the most notable of which being the unemployment report for the eurozone. All eyes now on the ECB meeting early next month after the December inflation data showed price growth slowing considerably but underlying core prices rising.
UK
A few Bank of England policymakers are due to speak over the next week, including Catherine Mann on Saturday and Huw Pill on Sunday which may help set the tone for the week. Governor Andrew Bailey will also make an appearance on Tuesday so we could get a better idea of where they stand in the new year.
That aside it’s pretty quiet from a UK data standpoint with monthly GDP figures on Friday the only notable releases as we look for confirmation of the economy being in recession.
Russia
A quiet one next week with inflation data on Wednesday the only notable release. Focus remains on the war in Ukraine and what the next development in that will be.
South Africa
Government efforts to amend the mandate of the SARB have not been greeted well by the markets, the view being that any changes could weaken its inflation commitment and blur the lines between the institutions.
The currency has weakened in response to the reports although any changes are not likely to occur any time soon and probably not at all if past attempts are anything to go by. The government doesn’t have the super-majority required to make the constitutional changes without help from opposition parties.
Turkey
Unemployment and industrial production figures are the only notable releases next week.
Switzerland
A very quiet week with unemployment the only release of note.
China
In the last week of 2022, China announced that people entering the country would no longer be required to undergo quarantine. It’s one of the most important steps the world’s second-largest economy has taken toward reopening to the world since the start of the pandemic. China has resumed its international contact with countries around the world.
At the same time, China will also relax the Covid controls for international arrivals from 8 January 2023, downgrading Covid management from Category A to Category B. The most important measure is that international arrivals will no longer be subject to testing and quarantine.
International arrivals will only be required to have a negative PCR test within 48 hours prior to departure. They will no longer need to apply for a health code, as travelers will only need to declare their health status on their customs cards.
The centralized quarantine system has also been lifted in China, and the movement of people within the country is about to return to pre-pandemic conditions. Health authorities in China and abroad are concerned about the lack of herd immunity in China due to the long-standing zero-Covid policy and the relatively low vaccination rate of high-risk groups in the country over the past three years.
A number of countries have now introduced certain restrictions on the entry of Chinese tourists in terms of testing and quarantine measures. The Chinese government’s subsequent response to a large number of confirmed new cases will be one of the risk events that the market will be watching.
As several countries and regions worldwide may enter a recession in 2023, external demand will decline, and export-related activities, including manufacturing, may slow down, hindering China’s economic recovery.
China’s economic recovery may only get going in the second half of this year. The Chinese government is expected to increase its financial strength to support the domestic economy by continuing to build unfinished domestic projects and perhaps developing more transport, energy, and technology infrastructure.
Next week brings CPI data for December which is expected to have little impact on the market.
India
A few releases of note next week including inflation and industrial output on Thursday.
Australia & New Zealand
China has recently eased the domestic and international Covid policy and the rebound in the economy is expected to boost demand for commodities such as iron ore. This could be supportive for commodity currencies this year.
Australian retail sales and the RBA CPI are eyed for further guidance on whether the inflation level has improved.
Japan
The Bank of Japan unexpectedly adjusted its government bond yield curve control on 20 December, triggering a spike in the yen. In response, the December summary of opinions stated that the revision of the YCC would help improve market functioning, that it was not an exit policy shift, and that Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) and YCC should continue if needed. Traders are not convinced.
Next week focuses on the Japan Tokyo CPI, core CPI, and CPI excluding fresh food for further guidance on the level and path of inflation in Japan.
Economic Calendar
Saturday, Jan. 7
Economic Events
BOE’s Mann speaks on the world economy
Sunday, Jan. 8
BOE’s Pill speaks on monetary policy at the AEA meeting in New Orleans
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and Swedish PM Kristersson speak at the Security Policy conference Folk och Forsvar in Sweden
Monday, Jan. 9
Economic Data/Events
Australia foreign reserves
Singapore foreign reserves
Australia building approvals
China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans
Czech Republic GDP
Eurozone unemployment
France trade
Germany industrial production
Italy unemployment
Mexico CPI
Thailand consumer confidence
Fed’s Bostic in moderated discussion on the economy at the Rotary Club of Atlanta
BOE’s Pill speaks on the UK economic and monetary policy outlook at Money Marketeers event
Norwegian Petroleum Directorate annual report
Swiss National Bank releases 2022 results
Tuesday, Jan. 10
Economic Data/Events
US wholesale inventories
Colombia retail sales
France industrial production
Japan household spending, Tokyo CPI
Mexico international reserves
New Zealand house sales
Philippines trade
South Korea BoP
South Africa manufacturing production
Spain industrial production
Turkey industrial production
Symposium at Riksbank in Stockholm. Speeches by Fed Chair Powell, BOE Governor Bailey, ECB’s Schnabel, de Cos, and Knot
World Bank expected to release global economic prospects report
Wednesday, Jan. 11
Economic Data/Event
Australia retail sales, CPI, job vacancies
China FDI
Japan leading index
Mexico industrial production
New Zealand home sales, commodity prices
Turkey current account
ECB’s Holzmann and Vujcic speak in Vienna at the Euromoney CEE conference
Bank of Italy releases banks and money monthly statistics
Thursday, Jan. 12
Economic Data/Events
US CPI, initial jobless claims
India CPI
Australia trade
China CPI, PPI
India industrial production
Japan BoP
New Zealand building permits
Fed’s Bullard discusses the economy and monetary policy at a virtual event hosted by the Wisconsin Bankers Association
Fed’s Barkin speaks at VBA/VA Chamber
ECB consumer expectations survey for November, and economic bulletin
USDA releases monthly world agricultural supply/demand estimates (WASDE)
Friday, Jan. 13
Economic Data/Events
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment
France CPI
Poland CPI
Russia CPI
Australia home loans
Canada existing home sales
China trade
Eurozone industrial production
India trade
Italy industrial production
Japan money stock
Thailand forward contracts, foreign reserves
UK industrial production
Czech Republic presidential elections first round voting starts
Earnings Season Reports from: BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup, Delta Air Lines (DAL), DiDi Global (OTCPK:DIDIY), First Republic (FRC), JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth Group (UNH), and Wells Fargo
Italy’s Istat releases monthly economic note
Sovereign Rating Updates
Poland (Fitch)
Spain (Moody’s)
Iceland (Moody’s)
Ireland (DBRS)
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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