JohnFScott
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) is a large high-end coffee retailer based out of Seattle, Washington. This company has shown some flat growth via fundamentals analysis, with the stock price nearly doubling in four years. Simple moving average periods have demonstrated relative positive strength over the last 200 working days. As a result, the stock price has accelerated by 15% in the previous month.
It seems wise to look at this company for your portfolio for both short-term return and long-term growth.
Fundamentals Show Revenue will Double in 4 Years
Ratios
The current ratio was most substantial in 2018, and Starbucks’ current ratio has been lower in the last five years. The quick ratio, as well as the cash ratio, have similar patterns to the current ratio.
|
Metric |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
|
Period |
F.Y. |
F.Y. |
F.Y. |
F.Y. |
FY |
|
Current ratio |
2.198 |
0.917 |
1.063 |
1.197 |
0.767 |
|
Quick ratio |
1.862 |
0.612 |
0.820 |
0.951 |
0.476 |
|
Cash ratio |
1.540 |
0.436 |
0.592 |
0.792 |
0.308 |
|
Days of sales outstanding |
24.341 |
14.049 |
21.657 |
14.232 |
13.304 |
Data
This current year has been a solid year for Starbucks, with its simple moving average of over 200 days has been relatively strong. Additionally, as the U.S. stock market appears to be bottoming, the latest 20 days simple moving report strength has also been very robust.
|
Metric |
Values |
|
SMA20 |
8.18% |
|
SMA50 |
10.33% |
|
SMA200 |
16.72% |
Source: FinViz
Enterprise
Despite weaker fundamental ratios, the stock price has accelerated from 2018 to nearly double up to 2021. This year shows a more inadequate market cap and stock price performance, but Starbucks may fully recover its 2021 levels with the most recent returns.
|
Metric |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
|
Symbol |
SBUX |
SBUX |
SBUX |
SBUX |
SBUX |
|
Stock price |
58.590 |
84.130 |
90.050 |
111.450 |
87.100 |
|
Number of shares |
1.309 B |
1.185 B |
1.173 B |
1.180 B |
1.153 B |
|
Market capitalization |
76.700 B |
99.660 B |
105.656 B |
131.511 B |
100.452 B |
Source: Financial Modelling Prep
Estimate
With current revenue growth underway, if the USA stock market can sustain its momentum, Starbucks may be able to live up to its forecasted numbers with some relative strength into 2026. There will be some decent growth with a strong stock dividend yield and solid performance, a rare feature for any American stock. Also, Starbucks’ net profit should grow by 50% as projected into 2026.
|
YEARLY ESTIMATES |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
|
Revenue |
32,158 |
35,841 |
39,756 |
43,774 |
47,618 |
|
Dividend |
1.97 |
2.16 |
2.32 |
2.46 |
3.18 |
|
Dividend Yield (in %) |
2.01 % |
2.20 % |
2.37 % |
2.51 % |
3.25 % |
|
EPS |
2.87 |
3.40 |
4.00 |
4.71 |
5.35 |
|
P/E Ratio |
34.14 |
28.81 |
24.50 |
20.82 |
18.31 |
|
EBITDA |
6,101 |
7,006 |
7,951 |
9,030 |
– |
|
Net Profit |
3,320 |
3,891 |
4,489 |
5,178 |
5,573 |
Source: BusinessInsider
Technical Analysis Shows Optimal Time for Market Orders
Fibonacci
If one was to look at the Fibonacci levels based on the most recent Starbucks price action, the timing is near perfect for taking market entries to get quick returns. It might take a while for the Starbucks Fibonacci trendline to update itself on the recent stock price. It is hard to optimize when to take market entries, but sometimes you can use the 382 Fibonacci level to mark potential entries. You want to take advantage of potential profitable returns as you wait for the stock price to cross the trend line.
fibonacci sbux (custom platform )
Bollinger Bonds
As one can see with the Bollinger upper band, as Starbucks’ stock price quickly moves up, the upper band tries to keep up to date with its solid momentum. The real concerns about this momentum are how long this upswing will last.
bollinger sbux (custom platform)
RSI
As the stock price of Starbucks has very high momentum, it has nearly reached the RSI overbought condition. It is common to see stock prices pull back from this to allow new rates to come into the market to adjust the RSI on the latest stock price moves.
sbux rsi (custom platform)
Prediction via AI
Monte Carlo
This Monte Carlo simulation reveals some extreme upward-moving prediction paths confirming that the stock price of Starbucks should be reasonably sustainable over the short term. Also, the accompanying normalized distribution shows more significant estimates on the right side of the latest value in stock price.
monte carlo sbux (custom platform)
Regression
Another way to verify sustainable stock price moves is using the forecasted 30-day red regression line using artificial intelligence. Here you can see how the Starbucks stock price continues to increase, which is not flat. So, the stock price momentum will moderate slower but should outperform the overall S & P 500 stock index.
regression sbux (custom platform)
Risk is Lower for Higher Price Returns
Price vs. Short Volume
It is very encouraging to see the acceleration of Starbucks’ stock price shorting volume against the total volume drop. The CEO and founder have repurchased Starbucks, which confirms investors’ confidence in the performance of the stock price of Starbucks as it continues to accelerate up. If there were a further concern about the stock price to be questioned, you would see the shorting volume be over 50% of the total amount traded.
short sbux (custom platform)
Source: StockGrid
Recommendation
As one can see, many market analysts can see the strong buy signals from Starbucks. Therefore, based on the most recent data, they put out a solid buy. As one can surmise, the strong buy should percolate over weekly and maybe even monthly intervals.
|
Interval |
RECOMMENDATION |
BUY |
SELL |
NEUTRAL |
|
One month |
BUY |
10 |
6 |
10 |
|
One week |
BUY |
15 |
3 |
8 |
|
One day |
STRONG_BUY |
16 |
1 |
9 |
Source: Trading View
Sustainability
As we know, Starbucks is a relatively high-profile social justice company. Still, when its sustainability or ESG rating is only average performance, the company should focus on its product with its market messaging instead.
|
Metric |
Value |
|
Social score |
14.5 |
|
Peer count |
44 |
|
Governance score |
4.21 |
|
Total esg |
24.83 |
|
Highest controversy |
3 |
|
ESG performance |
AVG_PERF |
|
Peer group |
Consumer Services |
|
Environment score |
6.11 |
Source: Yahoo Finance
Due Diligence
Price Target
target sbux (custom platform )
Source: BusinessInsider
Insider
Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz also purchased a high volume of Starbucks shares in September, showing extra confidence in the company. It also says other executives feel the same way, reflecting upon Starbucks’s future as a fast-growing company.
Insider Stats
|
Metric |
X |
Filing Date |
Trading Date |
Ticker |
Insider |
Title |
Trade Type |
Price |
Quantity |
Owned |
Delta Own |
Value |
|
0 |
nan |
2022-09-16 18:01:39 |
2022-09-15 |
SBUX |
Hobson Mellody L |
Dir |
P – Purchase |
$92.58 |
+54,750 |
716,400 |
+8% |
+$5,068,536 |
|
1 |
D |
2022-09-16 17:59:52 |
2022-09-15 |
SBUX |
Jenkins Zabrina |
acting evp, G.C. |
S – Sale+OE |
$93.00 |
-4,020 |
36,337 |
-10% |
-$373,860 |
|
2 |
nan |
2022-09-16 17:56:45 |
2022-09-15 |
SBUX |
Allison Richard E Jr |
Dir |
P – Purchase |
$92.53 |
+10,000 |
23,658 |
+73% |
+$925,320 |
Source: Open Insider
Insider Activity
|
Date |
Shares Traded |
Shares Held |
Price |
Type |
Option |
Insider |
Trade |
|
2022-09-14 |
54,750.00 |
433,254.03 |
92.58 |
Buy |
No |
SCHULTZ HOWARD D |
54750.0 |
|
2022-09-30 |
43,912.00 |
43,912.00 |
nan |
Buy |
No |
SCHULTZ HOWARD D |
43912.0 |
|
2022-11-09 |
56.00 |
36,369.21 |
96.26 |
Sell |
No |
SCHULTZ HOWARD D |
-56.0 |
|
2022-11-09 |
990.00 |
39,527.00 |
96.26 |
Sell |
No |
Jenkins Zabrina |
-990.0 |
|
2022-11-09 |
1,599.00 |
52,366.42 |
96.26 |
Sell |
No |
Jenkins Zabrina |
-1599.0 |
|
2022-11-10 |
234.00 |
39,293.00 |
97.38 |
Sell |
No |
TERUEL JAVIER G |
-234.0 |
|
2022-11-10 |
67.00 |
36,302.21 |
97.38 |
Sell |
No |
Ramo Joshua Cooper |
-67.0 |
|
2022-11-10 |
1,507.00 |
50,859.42 |
97.38 |
Sell |
No |
Campion Andrew |
-1507.0 |
|
2022-11-13 |
241.00 |
36,061.21 |
97.42 |
Sell |
No |
KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIG |
-241.0 |
|
2022-11-13 |
3,311.00 |
47,548.42 |
97.42 |
Sell |
No |
Shih Clara |
-3311.0 |
Source: BusinessInsider
Conclusion
Starbucks is entering an exciting time with the recent acceleration in its stock price. When you have the CEO and founder buying stock, take note to do the same. The same case can be said for market analysts’ recommendations, which follow a strong buy most recently. Forward guidance also indicates a potential increase of 40+% within four years. Based on where the current stock price is at the optimal time to make trades as it reaches a Fibonacci level of 0.382 level. As a result, the result makes sense on the timing for entries and potential short terms with long-term include with 40+% revenue increase.
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