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Elevator Pitch
I continue to rate Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.’s (NYSE:SHG) [055550:KS] stock as a Buy.
I reviewed Shinhan Financial’s Q4 2022 financial results in my earlier February 25, 2022 update for the company. I discuss about Shinhan Financial’s recent announcements regarding shareholder capital return and its near-term prospects in this latest article.
I find it encouraging that Shinhan Financial has recently initiated a new share repurchase program, while remaining committed to quarterly dividends. The company is also expected to turn in a good set of results for the upcoming quarter. As such, I believe that Shinhan Financial should still warrant a Buy investment rating.
Dividends
On October 6, 2022, Shinhan Financial issued a new 6-K filing highlighting that the company’s “made a resolution to pay quarterly cash dividends.” Specifically, Shinhan Financial will be paying out a quarterly dividend per share of KRW400 towards the end of this month.
This announcement will come as a relief for Shinhan Financial’s income-focused shareholders and investors. SHG had only just made a switch from annual dividends to quarterly dividends in the third quarter of last year, and there were concerns whether Shinhan Financial will stick to its new practice of paying quarterly dividends in the current weak economic environment.
As it turned out, Shinhan Financial has sent a strong signal that it remains committed into its new shareholder capital return policy of distributing dividends on a quarterly basis. More importantly, Shinhan Financial didn’t cut its quarterly dividend payout, as its most recent dividend of KRW400 per share is the same as what the company distributed in the preceding quarter.
Looking forward, the sell-side analysts’ consensus financial estimates as per S&P Capital IQ data point to Shinhan Financial offering appealing consensus forward fiscal 2022, 2023 and 2024 dividend yields of 7.1%, 7.4%, and 7.9%, respectively. Shinhan Financial’s decision to continue with quarterly dividend payments and maintain the same payout as the previous quarter gives investors confidence that the company will keep its current dividend policy unchanged.
Share Repurchase And Cancellation
Shinhan Financial also disclosed its plans relating to share buybacks and treasury share cancellation on the same day the company announced its latest quarterly dividend.
In another October 6, 2022 6-K filing, Shinhan Financial revealed that the company will spend around KRW150 billion buying back approximately 0.8% of its shares outstanding between the date of the announcement and early-January 2023.
It certainly makes a lot of sense for Shinhan Financial to embark on a share repurchase program now, considering where its shares are trading at now.
The market is currently valuing Shinhan Financial at a consensus forward next twelve months’ normalized P/E multiple of 3.5 times and a historical trailing P/TBV (Price-to-Tangible Book Value) multiple of 0.45 times. The stock’s long-term historical mean valuation multiples are much higher in comparison. Shinhan Financial’s 10-year average forward P/E metric is 7.3 times, while its 10-year mean P/TBV ratio is 0.72 times. Taking into account Shinhan Financial’s undemanding valuations relative to history, the company’s current buybacks should be value-accretive.
Moreover, Shinhan Financial announced on October 6, 2022 that it will cancel all of the company’s shares bought back from the new share repurchase program. For Korean companies in general, share buybacks don’t necessarily translate into a reduction in share count, as most of these Korean companies will choose to retain these treasury shares for future share-based compensation. As such, Shinhan Financial’s decision to cancel 100% of the shares repurchased as part of the new share buyback exercise should be seen in a positive light.
In conclusion, Shinhan Financial’s recent dividend and share repurchase announcements suggest that the company has a strong intention to distribute excess capital and cash flow back to its shareholders.
Positive Q3 2022 Outlook
In addition to the encouraging shareholder capital return announcements, Shinhan Financial’s positive outlook in the near term should provide support for its share price. The company is likely to report its Q3 2022 financial results in late-October, according to the timing of its past quarterly earnings disclosures.
Based on the sell-side’s consensus financial projections sourced from S&P Capital IQ, Shinhan Financial is expected to witness an acceleration of its top line and bottom line growth for the third quarter of 2022. Analysts see Shinhan Financial delivering a YoY top line growth of +14.7% in Q3 2022, as compared to its Q2 2022 revenue increase of +8.6%. Separately, the market consensus suggests that Shinhan Financial’s YoY normalized EPS growth will accelerate from +5.0% in Q2 2022 to +48.2% for Q3 2022 on a YoY basis.
There are two main factors that support the case for Shinhan Financial reporting a strong set of results in Q3 2022.
The first factor is the positive effects of a rising rate environment. Shinhan Financial’s group-level net interest margin is forecasted to expand from 1.94% for Q2 2022 to 2.03% in Q3 2022, according to the consensus financial estimates.
The second factor is that Shinhan Financial isn’t expected to record significant provisions in the third quarter of this year. As highlighted in its Q2 2022 earnings presentation slides, Shinhan Financial has previously done substantial “preemptive provisioning” and “front-loaded credit costs based on conservative economic outlook.”
Closing Thoughts
Shinhan Financial stays a Buy-rated stock in my opinion. The stock’s P/E and P/TBV valuations remain very attractive, and the company continues to return a meaningful amount of capital to its shareholders.
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