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Transcript
Dan: Looking at fixed-income markets today, we see good opportunities in both government-guaranteed mortgages and securitized credit. We like the government-guaranteed mortgage market for three reasons. First, valuations are attractive. Second, relative value opportunities are plentiful. And third, government-guaranteed mortgages offer investors a spread over US Treasuries with a low correlation to the business cycle.
Looking today at valuations in the government-guaranteed mortgage market, they’re historically very attractive, meaning investors, the yield they receive to own a government-guaranteed mortgage over a government-guaranteed Treasury, is historically high.
Additionally, when we look at the opportunities within the sector, there are opportunities for managers like us to add value trading relative value.
For example, when we look at lower coupons today, they look historically expensive relative to higher coupons. This is a direct impact of the Fed’s purchase program.
So for active managers, we can own more higher coupons relative to lower coupons and add alpha to portfolios over time.
And lastly, diversification from the business cycle. When we look back at historic returns, unlike credit sectors which tend to have a very high correlation to the business cycle, underperforming in recessions, and outperforming in expansions, government-guaranteed mortgages have exhibited a very low correlation. And with today’s economic outlook uncertain, we think government-guaranteed mortgages offer an attractive place to position portfolios.
Disclosure
All investments contain risk and may lose value. Mortgage and asset-backed securities may be sensitive to changes in interest rates, subject to early repayment risk, and their value may fluctuate in response to the market’s perception of issuer creditworthiness; while generally supported by some form of government or private guarantee there is no assurance that private guarantors will meet their obligations.
This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
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CMR2022-1209-2633487
Disclaimer
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