Reasons Why I Used January’s Rally To Raise Cash

Main Thesis & Background

The purpose of this article is to discuss the broader equity market and some recent portfolio adjustments I have made. When I wrote my macro-articles with a focus on 2022, the tone wasn’t cheerful. Fortunately, January has started off with a bang and been consistent with historical precedent of a positive move for U.S. indices.

This is the good news, as enjoying some early 2023 profits is a very welcomed development. The problem is I believe these gains are getting a bit carried away. There is lot of things that could go wrong this year to derail continued gains, and such a hot streak for stocks has me shifting to a more cautious short-term outlook. As a result, I have used the rising tide of January to both raise cash and add to opportunistic positions. I will discuss the reasons for my caution and the merit behind the buys I did make in the review to follow.

Stock Prices Rising While Earnings Expected To Decline

To begin, I will touch on the reasons for my reassessment so early on in the calendar year. As readers are surely aware this has been a great start for long positions. As of the market’s close on 2/3, we have seen across the board gains in U.S. stocks YTD, with a notable double-digit increase to the Nasdaq:

I should be rejoicing here – right? In fairness, I am to a degree. It’s nice to see my account balances rise on a weekly basis after all the volatility my portfolio experienced last year. But I have concerns. The markets push higher could be a correction off lows that were just too low. It did seem like things were a bit too pessimistic last year.

But on the other hand, maybe the broad drop in share prices was justified. We are contending with a higher rate environment, ongoing instability in eastern Europe, and the prospect of a recession in both the U.S. and EU at some point this low. This has caused analysts to consistently slash earnings estimates for the S&P 500 since mid-2022 (estimates are for calendar year 2023):

The reality is analysts are cutting forward earnings expectations by quite a bit. This hurts the “E” part of the forward P/E equation. Yet – stock prices have been rising. This combination expands the forward P/E ratio and, in effect, makes the market more expensive to buy into. I don’t just mean a higher price – when the indices rise they are always more “expensive” since the absolute value is higher. But the valuation expanding means that the premium for having stock exposure has also expanded. That is what worries me.

There are caveats here. Forward earnings expectations are just that – expectations. Markets could be rising because analysts have gotten their forward outlook wrong and 2023 is going to be brighter than expected. If that turns out to be the case, the market isn’t going to wind up being as expensive today as it seems.

But I still am generally uneasy with such a strong month for stocks on the backdrop of lower earnings expectations. This is key to why I see lightening up on some equity exposure during this period of strength make sense. The corporate environment is set to struggle in mid and late 2023, yet stocks are rising. This type of disconnect is a signal to me to take some risk off.

Economic Output Signals Flashing Weakness

Let me now examine why corporate outlooks are not so hot right now. After all 2022 was not really that bad of a year on a macro-economic level. The economy held up reasonably well through higher interest rates and uncertainty, yet markets got slammed. So maybe we are due for a sustained rally and I am worrying for nothing.

There is merit to that line of thinking. But I believe my concerns are well founded. For one, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a fairly reliable gauge for future economic activity. It has been in contraction territory for a few months now, and that doesn’t bode well for Q1 this year:

Counter-intuitively, GDP growth has managed to be positive. But that is a backward looking metric. With a negative PMI, that means orders were low (also backward looking), but suggestive that growth is going to contract.

That is just one area to keep an eye on. And one metric alone is never enough to form an accurate conclusion for the future. But the PMI number is far from the only trouble spot. A similar story emerges when we consider the Leading Economic Index (LEI). This is published monthly by The Conference Board and uses ten key variables to forecast future economic activity. As is the case with the PMI, the LEI has been descending. And this trend has been constant for over the past 10 months:

My point from all this is not to suggest readers should be fleeing all their stocks straightaway. But it is to give some critical food for thought. Economic indicators are suggesting weakness ahead in no unclear terms. If the stock market was falling, there would be a real argument to be made on when a bottom is in, where value could be found, etc. But with markets rising while being coupled with all these glaring signals – I think it’s time to moderate forward expectations.

Retail Is In Trouble

Digging deeper into the macro-picture, I will take a moment to discuss retail sales. This is another area that is a bit of a red flag because consumers are starting to tighten their belts. For example, retail sales have dropped markedly on a year-over-year basis. This highlights weakness to start the year:

This suggests household sentiment is on the decline – in addition to the fact that inflation has been eating away at disposable income.

For perspective on this, consider that excess savings were a big headline during the pandemic as Americans received massive amounts of stimulus while simultaneously locking down (and therefore spending less). At the height of the pandemic household savings amounted to $2.3 trillion, according to data from the Fed. This cash cushion has dwindled to $1.2 trillion currently:

What this is exemplifying is that consumer demand is slowing and that will likely continue to be the case since savings have dropped. This leads me to think that more discretionary sectors and stocks are going to come under pressure in the first half of the year. Yet (so far) retail/consumer discretionary plays have been on fire in 2023:

These are strong gains and seem ripe for some profit taking. That is precisely what I am doing, and I think the preceding graphics on retail sales and declines in savings support this action.

Not A Fan Of Cash? A Few Places To Consider

Now that the bad news is out of the way, I will discuss a few areas that seem like reasonable buys to me. As I said, I have built up my cash position and that is a move I am comfortable with. I am earning roughly 3.5% on my savings and over 4% in a CD I recently set up. So cash pays right now.

But cash isn’t for everyone, and I still have the majority of money in the market anyway. Below are areas I have been adding to and the reasons why:

1. Real Estate

This is an area that didn’t perform too well in 2022 but I think is poised for a rebound this year. Real Estate, or REITs, are a great play but a conditional one. This assumes the Fed is going to put a halt on its rate hike plans. I am anticipating a rate hike this week, one more, and then an extended pause. If that outlook materializes, then REITs as a whole make a lot of sense. The reason being that historically this sector delivers big gains after the conclusion of a central bank rate hike cycle:

In my opinion readers could do well buying diversified and/or more generalized REITs. I think that is a good way to play this space, but in particular I think exposure to apartment buildings is favorable. I like apartments communities primarily in the Southeast, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic regions that cater to young professionals. The reason being this is a more resilient market and also capitalizes on the trend of growing rents nationwide:

The principal view here is this is a way to help stay ahead of inflation. Apartment REITs, especially in the regions I mentioned, have pricing power. With REITs have a strong track record post-rate hike cycles and rental pricing sitting at historical high levels, this is an area that has value to me.

**I have a long position in Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA).

2. Energy/Oil

As my followers are keenly aware, the Energy sector has been a place I have been advocating throughout 2022. With 2023 underway, this story remains intact. There are a number of reasons for this. One is that supply remains historically limited. Two, flare-ups in eastern Europe or the Middle East could happen at any time, and that often bodes well for the price of oil (for those wanting it to go up). Three, the Chinese demand recovery that is expected this year should balance out growth concerns in the U.S. and EU.

Beyond these macro-forces, a development that should help shore up domestic demand is the replenishment of the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs). This was a poorly mismanaged policy by the Biden administration, in my opinion, depleting our nation’s reserves at a time of non-emergency. Currently, SPR levels are extremely low, and I believe the government will act over the upcoming year to build those inventory levels back up:

This is not a reason in and of itself to buy this sector. But when I factor this in with the other bullet points I mentioned above, I see a growing demand for crude oil in 2023. Energy shares have been thriving in this environment – and there is not much on the horizon that is going to change that.

**I have a long position in the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (RYE).

3. Municipal Bonds/Other IG Credit

My last suggestion is IG credit. I think bonds are due for a comeback across the board due to having an abnormally weak year in 2022, the fact the Fed will be less hawkish, and that equity volatility will pique interest in safe havens/equity hedges. I generally believe investors will do reasonably well with corporates, treasuries, and munis, but I prefer munis for a few reasons.

One, I am a working professional that pays a lot in taxes. So the tax-exempt status of these bonds is preferable to me. For others, such as retirees or those in low-tax states, the benefit is not as clear cut. Two, defaults for this sector are historically very low. This is an attractive attribute when volatility picks up. Three, IG munis saw heightened spread widening last year compared to IG corporates. While this was not “good” for investors last year, it means that new positions in munis look relatively more attractive by comparison:

**I have long positions in the Nuveen AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund (NEA), PIMCO Municipal Income Fund II (PML), PIMCO California Municipal Income Fund II (PCK), BlackRock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust (BBN), and Invesco California Value Municipal Income Trust (VCV).

Bottom-line

I always welcome a profitable January. This month certainly was one, and investors needed it more than ever. But I am not going to sit back and expect similar gains to keep coming over the next few months. I see this month’s bullishness as a bit too much, too fast, and will be using this opportunity to lock in some short-term wins and hope for cheaper buy-in prices in the near future.

Some call this market timing, but for me it is more about staying within my risk tolerance. Sitting with cash in the 25% range is where I feel comfortable right now given all the challenges in the market and the willful ability of investors to look past those challenges. I see this story changing soon – with Russia/Ukraine, lower earnings, and continued Fed rate hikes going to challenge sentiment, and therefore share prices. There are areas of value, such as bonds, energy shares, and real estate, that I think readers could profit from rotating into, aside from cash.

Ultimately, the market is leaving me wondering how it felt from ultra negative to ultra positive on a dime. When sentiment confuses me, I often take some risk off the table, and I used January’s rebound to do just that. At worst, it will help me sleep better. At best, it will protect my portfolio and offer me “alpha” when I deploy that cash at more opportune times going forward.

Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.