Non-farm Payrolls Prints at 467k, USD in Focus After Going Oversold

NFP, Non-farm Payrolls, USD Talking Points:

This morning brought the release of Non-farm Payrolls for the month of January.
Expectations were very low after the earlier-week ADP report showed a contraction of 307k versus an expectation for a gain of 201k.
The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about price action or chart patterns, check out our DailyFX Education section.

This morning brings the release of Non-farm Payrolls out of the United States, and the bar is set incredibly low. This is a live article, meaning that it’ll be updated around the event, with each update denoted by the time in which it was added ahead of that specific entry.

updating…

8:20

Ahead of the event, the US Dollar is extremely weak, with the currency going into oversold territory on the four-hour chart. This has become a more recent occurrence in the USD as the currency went oversold a few weeks ago on the heels of a 7% CPI print, only to push into overbought territory a couple of weeks later after the FOMC rate decision.

In the week since that Fed meeting, matters have shifted quite a bit. Expectations have soured on US economic data and after yesterday’s ECB rate decision, hopes have started to build for an eventual shift in policy from the European Central Bank, with some research outlets even calling for hikes later this year. The US Dollar built in an evening star formation on Monday, which is often followed with the aim of bearish reversals – and that formation has continued to fill-in ever since with RSI now dipping into oversold territory.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

That’s amounted to a strong shift in the EUR/USD pair which is more than 57% of the DXY’s composition; so going along with that oversold reading in the USD is an overbought reading in EUR/USD.

In EUR/USD, levels remain a concern as prices are now pushing up towards the monthly high, with a hold ahead of the NFP release. That level is at 1.1484 and just above, at 1.1500 is a major psychological levelthat marks the top-end of a longer-term resistance zone.

These levels are in-play ahead of this morning’s NFP release, and the prospect of reversals in both USD and EUR/USD could be themes of interest for this morning’s event.