The bear camp has been disarrayed for two months.
The two-months-old Uptrend admirably has maintained continuously.
The bulls are winning the war, although losing a few small battles.
Disarrayed “Wrong” Bear Camp
For two months bears have growled continuously, even one bear called the current market “Limbo,” which I have not found in any investment books.
Let me bring the following quote from “A Bear? Or A Bull? It Really Doesn’t Matter”
“The most common topic on Wall Street is about a Bear Market rather than a Bull one. Why?
Because a bear growls constantly while a bull is always quiet. Also, the former is crazy about animal (including human) meat, but the latter eats only vegetables (like monk). Therefore, a bear is a violent attacker while the latter is a patient worker for farmers in underdeveloped countries.
We did a good job of naming a bear market when the market dives sharply (and it’s exciting), while a bull market when the market moves steadily and smoothly upward month to month year after year (and it’s boring).
As a consequence, the media and commentators are fond of reporting about Bears not Bulls, so that most investors tend to follow Bearish Stories than Bullish Ones, in turn, to lean more shorter terms by chasing sweet bear-market recommendations, and hot-tipped riskier equities in short terms.”
The Last Battles of Some “Loyal” Bears
A Half of Bears folded their tents and joined the bull camp. The remaining bears much more seriously attacked the bulls today (May 31, Tuesday), winning on a very small battle, but losing the war every week and every month, as reported in the article.
The origin of the “sin” (not “Limbo”) was the Pandemic Recession [PR], declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] in March 2020.
The two-months-old Current Uptrend, beginning on March 31st, has gained another stronger footing – as of May 31, 2023
The “PPO” Approach with a minimum help of EXCEL demonstrated a clear track on the coming up-/down-momentum and up/downtrend which has not been detected by clever algorithm (i.e., moving average) or sophisticated graphics or charts.
By the PPO Approach, it is a bit edge on tracking the current Uptrend, started two months ago, and the Uptrend has been confirmed every week and every month.
The “P” is a plus and the “m” is “minus” so the S&P 500 daily closing prices are classified by either “P” or “m”.
Table 1: Momentums & Trends |
|||||||||
(Mar. 01, 2023 – May 31, 2023) |
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Date |
Close |
%CH |
m/P |
||||||
02/28/23 |
3,970.15 |
* |
* |
||||||
03/01/23 |
3,951.39 |
-0.47% |
m |
||||||
03/02/23 |
3,981.35 |
0.76% |
P |
||||||
03/03/23 |
4,045.64 |
1.61% |
P |
||||||
03/06/23 |
4,048.42 |
0.07% |
P |
||||||
03/07/23 |
3,986.37 |
-1.53% |
m |
||||||
03/08/23 |
3,992.01 |
0.14% |
P |
||||||
03/09/23 |
3,918.32 |
-1.85% |
m |
||||||
03/10/23 |
3,861.59 |
-1.45% |
m |
||||||
03/13/23 |
3,855.76 |
-0.15% |
m |
||||||
03/14/23 |
3,919.29 |
1.65% |
P |
||||||
03/15/23 |
3,891.93 |
-0.70% |
m |
||||||
03/16/23 |
3,960.28 |
1.76% |
P |
||||||
03/17/23 |
3,916.64 |
-1.10% |
m |
||||||
03/20/23 |
3,951.57 |
0.89% |
P |
||||||
03/21/23 |
4,002.87 |
1.30% |
P |
||||||
03/22/23 |
3,936.97 |
-1.65% |
m |
||||||
03/23/23 |
3,948.72 |
0.30% |
P |
||||||
03/24/23 |
3,970.99 |
0.56% |
P |
||||||
03/27/23 |
3,977.53 |
0.16% |
P |
||||||
03/28/23 |
3,971.27 |
-0.16% |
m |
||||||
03/29/23 |
4,027.81 |
1.42% |
P |
||||||
03/30/23 |
4,050.83 |
0.57% |
P |
||||||
03/31/23 |
4,109.31 |
1.44% |
P |
||||||
04/03/23 |
4,124.51 |
0.37% |
P |
||||||
04/04/23 |
4,100.60 |
-0.58% |
m |
||||||
04/05/23 |
4,090.38 |
-0.25% |
m |
||||||
04/06/23 |
4,105.02 |
0.36% |
P |
||||||
04/10/23 |
4,109.11 |
0.10% |
P |
||||||
04/11/23 |
4,108.94 |
0.00% |
P |
||||||
04/12/23 |
4,091.95 |
-0.41% |
m |
||||||
04/13/23 |
4,146.22 |
1.33% |
P |
||||||
04/14/23 |
4,137.64 |
-0.21% |
m |
||||||
04/17/23 |
4,151.32 |
0.33% |
P |
||||||
04/18/23 |
4,154.87 |
0.09% |
P |
||||||
04/19/23 |
4,154.52 |
-0.01% |
m |
||||||
04/20/23 |
4,129.79 |
-0.60% |
m |
||||||
04/21/23 |
4,133.52 |
0.09% |
P |
||||||
04/24/23 |
4,137.04 |
0.09% |
P |
||||||
04/25/23 |
4,071.63 |
-1.58% |
m |
||||||
04/26/23 |
4,055.99 |
-0.38% |
m |
||||||
04/27/23 |
4,135.35 |
1.96% |
P |
||||||
04/28/23 |
4,169.48 |
0.83% |
P |
||||||
05/01/23 |
4,167.87 |
-0.04% |
m |
||||||
05/02/23 |
4,119.58 |
-1.16% |
m |
||||||
05/03/23 |
4,090.75 |
-0.70% |
m |
||||||
05/04/23 |
4,061.22 |
-0.72% |
m |
||||||
05/05/23 |
4,136.25 |
1.85% |
P |
||||||
05/08/23 |
4,138.12 |
0.05% |
P |
||||||
05/09/23 |
4,119.17 |
-0.46% |
m |
||||||
05/10/23 |
4,137.64 |
0.45% |
P |
||||||
05/11/23 |
4,130.62 |
-0.17% |
m |
||||||
05/12/23 |
4,124.08 |
-0.16% |
m |
||||||
5/15/2023 |
4,136.28 |
0.30% |
P |
||||||
5/16/2023 |
4,109.90 |
-0.64% |
m |
||||||
5/17/2023 |
4,158.77 |
1.19% |
P |
||||||
5/18/2023 |
4,198.05 |
0.94% |
P |
||||||
5/19/2023 |
4,191.98 |
-0.14% |
m |
||||||
5/22/2023 |
4,192.63 |
0.02% |
P |
||||||
5/23/2023 |
4,141.58 |
-1.22% |
m |
||||||
5/24/2023 |
4,115.24 |
-0.64% |
m |
||||||
5/25/2023 |
4,151.28 |
0.88% |
P |
||||||
5/26/2023 |
4,205.45 |
1.30% |
P |
||||||
5/30/2023 |
4,205.52 |
0.00% |
P |
||||||
5/31/2023 |
4,179.83 |
-0.61% |
m |
||||||
NOTE |
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1. CLOSE: The S&P 500 Index’s Closing |
|||||||||
2. %CH: The Percent Change. |
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3. m/P: minus/Plus. |
|||||||||
4. Data Source: Yahoo Finance |
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Table 2: The m/P on Friday |
|||||||||
Mar., 2023, Apr. 2023, and May 26, 2023 |
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Month |
Date |
||||||||
Mar. |
3 |
10 |
17 |
24 |
31 |
||||
m/P |
P |
m |
m |
P |
P |
||||
Apr. |
6 |
14 |
21 |
28 |
* |
||||
m/P |
P |
m |
P |
P |
* |
||||
May |
5 |
12 |
19 |
26 |
* |
||||
m/P |
P |
m |
m |
P |
* |
||||
NOTE |
|||||||||
1. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. |
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2. Author made Table. 2, by using Table 1. |
Table 1 counts 1) 1”m”/1”P”was 12 vs. 6 (“m” had EDGE), 2) 2”m”/2”P” was: 4 vs. 6 (“P” had BIG EDGE), 3”m”/3”P” was: 1 vs. 5 (“P” had BIG EDGE), 4”m”/4”P” was 1 vs. 1 (EVEN).
“P” added another BIG EDGE on 2”m”/2”P (4 vs. 6) on the top of one BIG EDGE on 3”m”/3”p” (! vs. 5), making 2 BIG EDGE.
In Table 2, “P” had 3 votes out of 5 in March, 3 votes out of 4 in Apr., and 2 vote in May. While “m” got 2 votes out of 5 in March, 1 vote out of 4 in Apr., 2 in May,
The “P” vs. “m” was 8 vs. 5.
As a result, “P” had not only a significant EDGE over “m” but also still favorable votes (8 vs. 5) over “m”.
Since $3,970.25 on Feb. 28, the S&P 500 Index has steadily advanced to $4,109.31 on Mar. 31 (+3.50%), $4,169.48 on Apr. 28 (+1.46%), and $4,179.83 on May 31 (+0.25%).
Check this outstanding performance of the S&P 500 Index with Yahoo Finance.
In an ordinary economy, which has not been distorted by GR and PR, a recession is a healthy part of business cycles to do a needed adjustment of any disequilibrium that had occurred during an expansion process.
We call it as a garden-variety recession [GVR], which starts at a peak of business activity, or real GDI, and ends at a trough, and then an expansion starts. When we would not expect a GVR due mainly to any external shocks, it would be impossible to forecast recession.
A typical business cycle starts a bear market (which is a major component for Leading Indicator), and we expect a recession in about six months, and then a recession that sustains for anywhere between six months to one year.
The Conclusion
Still, you do not to BACK to 2009 yet? Understandable. It’s a human nature not to admit or change anything, although they believe the unfamiliar and new one is right.
When you make your own market strategy and portfolios, based upon 1) A Great Bull Market, started on March 2009, and a Great Expansion, started in June 2009, You finally arrive in an arrayed world.
And Then if you go ahead with the current Uptrend, your winning probability will zoom, albeit, the Uptrend would not go straight forward.
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