Glatfelter Stock: Serious Situation (NYSE:GLT)

As shares of Glatfelter (NYSE:GLT) have seen an absolute free fall this year, with shares down to $2.50 per share, an update on the investment thesis is long overdue. In January 2021, I last had a look at Glatfelter, as I concluded that the company was continuing to transform the business.

Some Perspective

When I looked at Glatfelter early in 2021 the company was a supplier of engineered materials, employing nearly 2,500 workers cross the globe, generating nearly a billion in sales in the process. The company was organized across two businesses: composite fibers and an airlaid materials business. The company generated roughly half of sales in Europe, a third in North America, and the remainder in the rest of the world.

The company is strong in niche segments which includes feminine hygiene, tea bags, single-serve coffees, as the company has been transforming the business from a low margin and cyclical business into a more predictable and higher margin business. With the vast majority of sales tied to consumer goods, the business looked quite stable, at least on paper.

This transformation was badly needed as a $30 stock in the 1990s and in 2014 has been consolidating in a $10-15 range. To put a more accurate picture we focus on the actual results ahead of the pandemic. 2019 sales rose 7% to $928 million on which a $55 million operating profits was reported, with adjusted earnings are reported at $0.75 per share, albeit that a large GAAP loss was posted after settlement of legacy pension charges.

Net debt of $234 million worked down to a 2.2 times leverage ratio based on $106 million in EBITDA. 2020 earnings trended around $0.80 per share, as debt inched up a bit and with a $1 billion enterprise valuation at $17 per share, Glatfelter announced a relative large deal. The company reached a $175 million deal to acquire Georgia-Pacific´s US nonwovens business, a deal set to add $100 million in sales and $20 million in EBITDA.

Net debt would jump to $450 million, and with pro forma EBITDA reported at $140 million, leverage ratios came in at 3.2 times, a bit on the high side. This observation, the troubled past and a fair valuation at best, made me quite cautious as I was not willing to join the bandwagon.

Stagnation – Free Fall

Shares of the company traded largely around the $15 mark during 2021 and even at slightly higher levels early in 2022. Ever since, it has been all downhill to $2 per share at the moment. Besides the purchase of Georgia-Pacific´s activities, the company announced a huge $308 million purchase of Jacob Holm in July 2021 as well, one which I did not provide coverage on.

In February of this year, the company posted its 2021 results as full year sales rose 18% to $1.08 billion, with fourth quarter revenues of $334 million rising in a much more pronounced manner as it includes the acquisition of Spunlace (related to the Jacob Holm purchase). That was the good news as full year operating earnings fell from $49 million to less than $29 million, with the company posting an $11 million operating losses in the fourth quarter.

The problem in all of this is that net debt has risen to $649 million, a huge number with $140 million in EBITDA reported in 2021, translating into a 4.6 times leverage ratio. This was outright worrying as on top of high leverage, the company was facing unprecedented (energy) inflation, notably in Europe.

More bad news arrived soon as the company announced a CFO transition in April. In May, the company posted first quarter results and while revenues rose to $382 million, the company essentially broke even after accounting for a massive $117 million amortization charge. Net debt inched up to $729 million and with quarterly adjusted EBITDA posted at just $23 million, annualized numbers translated into about an 8 times leverage ratio. Given this backdrop it is hard to understand that shares still traded around the $8 mark at the time.

In August, second quarter sales were reported at $364 million and a minimal operating profit of $9 million, almost entirely eaten by interest expenses, as net debt inched up a little further to $740 million. The quarterly $50 million EBITDA number improved a bit, but even if annualized still works down to sky-high leverage ratios as the company has been too aggressive with debt.

Ever since, the company has seen its CEO transition away as well, and in September the company halted its dividend in order to preserve $25 million a year in cash flow.

And Now?

Right now, the 45 million shares are essentially a call option at $2.50 per share, for a $112 million market valuation. Net debt is the driver of the game here and the question is if the company can survive this period of turmoil. Fortunately the dividend has been skipped already, capital spending lags depreciation charges, minimal operating earnings are still reported, as energy prices are actually moving lower in Europe, perhaps leaving some potential for a near term recovery in profitability.

Right now the situation is all just speculative at best, as the company frankly has been too aggressive in deal making in recent years following two large deals. This has jacked up leverage ratios to too high numbers, after which higher energy prices and a cooling economy created the current period of turmoil.

For now, the situation is highly uncertain, perhaps a bit too uncertain to get involved, as I am not convinced about an easy way out here.