We now know a lot more about the actual quantities of copper used in all forms of electric vehicles. My original figures were very conservative for HEVs and as BEVs were not on the scene back then, we now have a new metric. HEVs will disappear and BEVs will become the new normal, consuming about 4 times the amount of copper as an ICE (internal combustion engine) alternative.
What I did do in my first post in 2007 was to look at at how much copper would be needed to convert the entire car fleet to EVs by 2027, just to show the massive volumes of copper involved. (There was no way that our manufacturing base could achieve that, even if every vehicle manufactured since 2007 was an EV.)
WRT to the ducati quote, I never assumed that after the subprime meltdown there would be an immediate shift to a bull market of any sort. Commodity bulls are very few and far between – just look at oil and gold as examples. However, as the BEV market accelerates, there is every chance that a number of metals essential to EVs will stretch the supply chain such that in a flat world economy there will be areas of significant outperformance.
Over the next few weeks I will look around to see if the major copper producers have any data or specific reports on what they regard as probable.
What I did do in my first post in 2007 was to look at at how much copper would be needed to convert the entire car fleet to EVs by 2027, just to show the massive volumes of copper involved. (There was no way that our manufacturing base could achieve that, even if every vehicle manufactured since 2007 was an EV.)
WRT to the ducati quote, I never assumed that after the subprime meltdown there would be an immediate shift to a bull market of any sort. Commodity bulls are very few and far between – just look at oil and gold as examples. However, as the BEV market accelerates, there is every chance that a number of metals essential to EVs will stretch the supply chain such that in a flat world economy there will be areas of significant outperformance.
Over the next few weeks I will look around to see if the major copper producers have any data or specific reports on what they regard as probable.
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