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The following segment was excerpted from this fund letter.
Mistakes of Commission: Altice USA (NYSE:ATUS)
Two ((very)) costly mistakes I’ve made over the last twelve months have been my investments in Altice USA (ATUS) and Poshmark (POSH). Both are down over 50% from my initial purchase price. I not only poorly appraised business quality, I also incorrectly appraised the intrinsic value of both of these companies. It should rarely end up the case that we pay over intrinsic value, at worst case we should never lose money on an investment.
I will dive into one of these mistakes below and maybe dive into the other in a future letter.
My thinking when buying Altice USA was that they operate as a duopoly in their main footprint, the New York Tri-State area. They provide a needs-based service: internet, video, and voice services. I figured this is a very stable business with high barriers to entry. Management seemed competent as well based on historical capital allocation decisions. I didn’t fully appreciate at the time how poorly positioned they were relative to Verizon (VZ) Fios, as well as how fiercely competitive the business can get on promotions and customer acquisition.
Altice offers hybrid fiber coaxial (HFC) while Fios offers fiber-to-the-home (FTTH). FTTH is a far superior product, which has led to some share loss to Fios in the parts of their footprint that overlap. There have also been some subscriber losses in their other footprint due to new cable entrants and fixed wireless offerings.
My original thinking was that the video business will go to zero overtime due to continued pressure from services like Netflix (NFLX). In hindsight, I overstated their free cash flows excluding the video business due to difficulties disaggregating their business results. This FCF delta is a huge contributor to the difference between my current and original estimates of intrinsic value. Now, it’s possible that the video business doesn’t go to zero; however, I have a hard time envisioning that many households in ten years will still subscribe to linear television.
After losing some subscribers and facing some headwinds, they are now reinvesting many billions over the next few years in order to fiberize the majority of their footprint. I think this is a great plan and it will hopefully cement their position as a true duopoly in the New York TriState area. However, in their other major footprint, new fiber entrants are coming in and competition will only intensify. There are also some new entrants entering this space like Starlink satellite internet and fixed wireless internet from tier one mobile carriers. I think these will generally be more expensive and inferior to FTTH; however, they may end up putting some pricing pressure on Altice over time.
One serious risk is the huge amount of leverage and the possibility of prolonged inflation leading to higher rates. They don’t have any major debt maturities coming due for a few years, but it’s possible that rates are much higher then and they have issues refinancing at favorable terms or at all. I’ve always detested companies with too much leverage not sure why I didn’t consider this enough upon my initial analysis. I guess I figured it’s a stable business that can handle some leverage. However, a business with a lot of leverage will always be at the mercy of capital markets, a fact I can’t ever feel very comfortable with.
In summary, I overstated steady state free cash flows, poorly appraised their value proposition versus peers, didn’t consider new entrants and technologies thoroughly enough, and I didn’t consider the risk of rising inflation and rates.
I think once they fiberize their footprint and if they can bring their leverage down, and it’s clear that new entrants aren’t having much effect on their business, Altice might only then be a decent investment candidate.
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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