5 January, 2023 Ideal Dividend Be-All/End-All Stocks

Foreword

This article is based on seven Kiplinger/DogsOfTheDow/GrowthInvesting articles aimed at revealing ‘the best’ for the rest of 2022:

15 Best Stocks to Buy for the Rest of 2022

The lesson of the past two years: Be ready for anything. Our 15 best stocks to buy for the rest of 2022 reflect several possible outcomes for the final quarter of this tumultuous year.

BY CHARLES LEWIS SIZEMORE, CFA 9/23/22

5 Best Dow Dividend Stocks to Buy Now

This mini-portfolio of Dow dividend stocks is well-positioned to generate income and deliver outperformance in tempestuous market times.

BY DAN BURROWS 9/23/22

3 Healthcare Stocks Set to Prosper in a Post-Covid World

Do-it-yourself (DIY) investors should keep an eye on these investing opportunities the analyst community has identified.

BY WILL ASHWORTH 9/23/22

5 Top-Rated Housing Stocks With Long-Term Growth Potential

Housing stocks have struggled as a red-hot market cools, but these Buy-rated picks could be worth a closer look.

BY WILL ASHWORTH 9/23/22

5 Best Consumer Staples Stocks to Buy Now

Consumer staples stocks are beating the broader market this year and analysts say these five names are poised for more outperformance ahead.

BY DAN BURROWS 9/23/22

12 Best Inflation Stocks Today

Inflation remains elevated and investors are concerned. To get a sense of which stocks investors have focused on since inflation picked up, we identified the top performing stocks (100% gain or more) between the close on February 9, 2021 (the day before February 10th, 2021 CPI report) and November 8, 2022. The following table is limited to companies with a market cap of over $50 billion. The resulting list contains 12 stocks that have gained an average of 132% during the aforementioned timeframe.

BY DOGSOFTHEDOW.COM 9/23/22

The Top 11 Stocks for 2022

You want the best of the best. The companies whose growth won’t be curtailed by inflation and will continue to boast strong earnings and sales growth.

In this report, I’m going to show you 11 companies that have emerged as the crème de la crème that you should buy in 2022. With strong sales growth and profits ahead, these stocks are a must-have for your portfolio as we navigate our way through this inflationary environment.

BY LOUIS NAVELLIER, GROWTH INVESTOR

Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to this yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, these seven Kiplinger/DogsOfTheDow/GrowthInvestor articles projecting ‘top’ reliable dividend stocks are perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is January 13 data for 41 dividend-paying stocks of 53 screened and the 5 living up to the dogcatcher ‘ideal’ in this three-source collection. These make the 2023 Be-All/End-All Stocks collection.

The Ides of March 2020 plunge in the stock market took its toll on stocks over two years and ten months ago. However, sudden recovery in prices after the plunge by these forty-one dividend stocks made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more remote for first-time investors.

January 2023 shows a glimmer of light from five stocks emerging as dogcatcher ideal candidates. They are: ICL Group Ltd (ICL); North European Oil Royalty Trust (NRT); Energy Transfer LP (ET); BP p.l.c. (BP); Tricon Residential Inc. (TCN). Their prices settled between $3 and $112 below the annual dividend payout from a $1K investment.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Estimated Top-Ten 2023 Be-All/End-All Stocks Might Net 15.57% to 42.54% Gains By January 2024

Five of the tops-by-yield Be-All/End-All Stocks 2023 (tinted in the chart below) were also the top gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year targets. Thus, the top yield dog strategy for this group, as graded by analyst estimates for this month, proved 50% accurate.

Estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in each of the highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median-target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2023-24 data points. However, one-year target prices by lone analysts were not counted. The resulting ten probable best profit-generating Be-All/End-All Stocks 2023 projected to January 13, 2024, by that reckoning, were:

Equinor ASA (EQNR) netted $425.43 based on the median of target prices estimated by 3 analysts, plus estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 4% greater than the market as a whole.

Tricon Residential Inc. netted $383.07 based on dividends plus a median target price estimate from 8 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 14% more than the market as a whole.

Energy Transfer LP netted $364.94 based on estimates from 18 analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 78% greater than the market as a whole.

ICL Group Ltd netted $357.36 based on the median of target estimates from 5 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 10% greater than the market as a whole.

Matson, Inc. (MATX) netted $340.63 based on the median of target estimates from 2 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 24% greater than the market as a whole.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) netted $271.34 based on the median of target estimates from 32 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 41% greater than the market as a whole.

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) netted $220.51 based on the median of target price estimates from 29 analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 54% greater than the market as a whole.

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR) netted $209.58 based on estimates from 21 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 52% less than the market as a whole.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) netted $193.95 based on the median of target estimates from 3 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 52% greater than the market as a whole.

Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH) netted $155.66 based on the median of target estimates from 21 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 15% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was 29.23% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten Be-All/End-All Stocks 2023. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 21% greater than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

The “dog” moniker was earned by stocks exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest-yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More specifically, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs”.

Top 53 Be-All/End-All 2023 Stock Picks By Broker Targets

This scale of broker-estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a scale of market popularity. Note: no broker coverage or 1 broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. This scale can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below. As noted above, these scores may also be taken as a contrarian.

Top 53 2023 Be-All/End-All 2022 Stock Picks By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top Stocks By Yield Are The January Be-All/End-All 2023 Dividend Dogs

Top ten Be-All/End-All 2023 Dividend Stocks selected 1/13/23 by yield represented just three of eleven Morningstar sectors.

First place was secured by the lone basic materials concern, ICL Group Ltd [1].

Second place was taken by the first of seven energy representatives, North European Oil Royalty Trust [2]. The others placed third, fourth, and seventh to tenth: Pioneer Natural Resources Co [3], Energy Transfer LP [4], Canadian Natural Resources Ltd [7], BP plc [8], Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) [9], and Chevron Corp (CVX) [10].

Then, two real estate members placed fifth and sixth: Digital Realty Trust Inc [5], and Realty Income Corp (O) [6], to complete the Top ten Be-All/End-All 2023 Dividend Stocks for January.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Be-All/End-All 2023 Dividend Stocks Showed 13.75% to 40.99% Upsides To January 2024, With (31) No Losers

To quantify top-yield rankings, analyst median-price target estimates provided a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Estimated A 22.26% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced of Top-Ten Be-All/End-All 2023 Stocks To January 2023

Ten top Be-All/End-All 2023 Stocks were culled by yield for this monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top-ten Be-All/End-All 2023 Dogs selected 1/13/23, showing the highest dividend yields, represented three of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated The 5 Lowest-Priced Of Ten Highest-Yield Be-All/End-All 2023Dividend Stocks (33) Delivering 22.86% Vs. (34) 18.70% Net Gains by All Ten by January 2024

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Be-All/End-All 2023 dividend pack by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 22.26% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The second lowest-priced Be-All/End-All 2023 top-yield stock, Energy Transfer LP, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 36.49%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield Be-All/End-All 2023 dividend stocks for January 13 were: ICL Group Ltd; Energy Transfer LP; North European Oil Royalty Trust; BP plc; Canadian Natural Resources Ltd with prices ranging from $7.61 to $57.33.

The five higher-priced top-yield Be-All/End-All 2023 dividend stocks for January 13 were: Realty Income Corp; Digital Realty Trust Inc; Exxon Mobil Corp; Chevron Corp; Pioneer Natural Resources Co, whose prices ranged from $66.19 to $238.99.

This distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.

Afterword

If somehow you missed the suggestion of the five stocks ripe for picking at the start of the article, here is a repeat of the list at the end:

In the current market advance, dividends from $1K invested in the five stocks listed above met or exceeded their single share prices as of 1/13/23.

As we are over ten months past the second anniversary of the 2020 Ides of March dip, the time to snap up those five top-yield Be-All/End-All 2023 Stocks is now… unless another big bearish drop in price looms ahead. (At which time your strategy would be to add to your holdings.)

Recent vs Fair Top Ten Be-All/End-All 2023 Prices

Since four of the top-ten Be-All/End-All 2022 shares are priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the following top chart shows the dollar and percentage shift required for six at recent prices to create break-even pricing for all ten. Starting with the dollar and percent variants to all ten top dogs conforming to (but not exceeding) the dogcatcher ideal in the top chart, the recent prices are documented in the middle chart and the fair prices are revealed in the bottom chart.

The top chart is an indicator of how low the six non-ideal stocks must adjust to become fair-priced. Which means conforming the standard of dividends from $1K invested exceeding the current single share price.

All 53 2023 Be-All/End-All Stocks by Publication

The analysis above focuses primarily on the top yield 30 Be-All/End-All 2023 selections. Below is the list of all the stocks including duplicate listings, (COP 2, and CVX 3) by publication.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your 2022 Closer dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by YCharts.