15 Companies Expected To Boost Dividend Payouts In First Half Of November

This is the latest in my series of articles where I provide predictions of annual dividend increases for a variety of long-term dividend growth companies. At the end of September, I provided predictions for 18 dividend growth companies that have historically announced annual payout increases during October. In this article I’ll look at another 15 dividend growth companies that I expect will announce their annual dividend increases in the first half of November.

Before I get to that, I should point out that apparel company V. F. Corporation (VFC) also announced a dividend increase in October – a 2.0% boost to an annualized $2.04, giving the company a forward yield of 7.22%.

Here are the results from my predictions from October (as always, the original predictions are available here), followed by my predictions for the dividend increases that I’m expecting to be announced in the first half of November:

(All yields are based on stock prices at the market close on Friday, October 28th.)

Results for Dividend Increase Announcements from October

AbbVie (ABBV) – 11 years of dividend growth

Prediction: 6.4 – 8.2% increase to $6.00 – $6.10

Actual: 5.0% increase to $5.92

Forward yield: 4.01%

The drugmaker fell short of my prediction as dividend growth continues to slow.

American Electric Power Company (AEP) – 14 years

Prediction: 4.5 – 5.5% increase to $3.26 – $3.30

Actual: 6.4% increase to $3.32

Forward yield: 3.71%

The electric utility continued its pattern of consistent 5 – 6% annual dividend growth.

A. O. Smith (AOS) – 30 years

Prediction: 10.7 – 14.3% increase to $1.24 – $1.28

Actual: 6.7% increase to $1.20

Forward yield: 2.21%

I had expected the manufacturer of boilers and hot water heaters to increase its dividend growth from last year’s 8% boost.

Amphenol Corporation (APH) – 12 years

Prediction: 20.0% – 27.5% increase to $0.96 – $1.02

Actual: 5.0% increase to $0.84

Forward yield: 1.10%

Despite EPS growth in the 25 – 35% range, the electrical component manufacturer’s boost this year was significantly below its long-term average of 28%.

BancFirst Corporation (BANF) – 29 years

Prediction: 2.8 – 5.6% increase to $1.48 – $1.52

Actual: 11.1% increase to $1.60

Forward yield: 1.67%

This mid-cap regional bank rewarded investors with a double-digit boost.

Brown & Brown (BRO) – 29 years

Prediction: 9.8 – 12.2% increase to $0.45 – $0.46

Actual: 12.2% increase to $0.46

Forward yield: 0.78%

The insurer continues to show accelerating dividend growth with an increase above last year’s 11% boost.

Calavo Growers (CVGW) – 9 years

Prediction: 0.9 – 1.7% increase to $1.16 – $1.17

Actual: Deferred to November

The producer of avocados and other fresh vegetables should announce its increase in early November.

DTE Energy Company (DTE) – 12 years

Prediction: 1.1 – 2.3% increase to $3.58 – $3.62

Actual: Deferred to November

This Detroit-based utility should announce its annual increase in November.

The Gorman-Rupp Company (GRC) – 17 years

Prediction: 5.9 – 8.8% increase to $0.72 – $0.74

Actual: 2.7% increase to $0.68

Forward yield: 2.48%

Pump manufacturer Gorman-Rupp’s latest dividend increase suffered as a result of decreasing EPS due to costs associated with a recent acquisition.

Lincoln Electric Holdings (LECO) – 28 years

Prediction: 10.7 – 14.3% increase to $2.48 – $2.56

Actual: 14.3% increase to $2.56

Forward yield: 1.82%

Lincoln Electric, manufacturer of industrial welding equipment, continued its outstanding dividend growth.

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) – 46 years

Prediction: 6.9 – 8.7% increase to $5.90 – $6.00

Actual: 10.1% increase to $6.08

Forward yield: 2.21%

The worldwide restaurant chain rewarded investors with a double-digit boost in early October.

Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) – 19 years

Prediction: 2.6 – 4.3% increase to $1.19 – $1.21

Actual: 7.8% increase to $1.25

Forward yield: 1.39%

Investors in the water utility benefitted from a rate increase that was authorized by the regulatory agencies.

Northwest Natural Holding (NWN) – 67 years

Prediction: 0.5% increase to $1.94

Actual: 0.5% increase to $1.94

Forward yield: 4.03%

The Portland, Oregon-based utility continued its record of penny-per-share annual dividend growth.

Prosperity Bancshares (PB) – 25 years

Prediction: 3.8 – 5.8% increase to $2.16 – $2.20

Actual: 5.8% increase to $2.20

Forward yield: 3.07%

This year’s increase from the Texas-based bank was similar to last year’s 6% increase.

Rockwell Automation (ROK) – 14 years

Prediction: 4.5 – 5.4% increase to $4.68 – $4.72

Actual: 5.4% increase to $4.72

Forward yield: 1.84%

This is the second straight year of 5% dividend growth, as the company deals with a heavy debt load and supply chain issues.

RPM International (RPM) – 49 years

Prediction: 2.5 – 5.0% increase to $1.64 – $1.68

Actual: 5.0% increase to $1.68

Forward yield: 1.77%

The strong dollar is hitting earnings at the specialty chemical company, as dividend growth slows slightly from last year’s 5.3% increase.

Stepan Company (SCL) – 55 years

Prediction: 9.0 – 11.9% increase to $1.46 – $1.50

Actual: 9.0% increase to $1.46

Forward yield: 1.41%

The specialty chemical company is dealing with inflationary headwinds as dividend growth drops from last year’s 10% boost.

Standex International Corporation (SXI) – 13 years

Prediction: 11.5 – 15.4% increase to $1.16 – $1.20

Actual: 7.7% increase to $1.12

Forward yield: 1.15%

The specialty machinery manufacturer’s latest increase is roughly half the company’s long-term growth rate of 14%.

Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) – 37 years

Prediction: 4.4 – 6.1% increase to $2.38 – $2.42

Actual: 5.3% increase to $2.40

Forward yield: 2.89%

The regional bank’s latest increase was right in line with its long term dividend growth rate of 5%.

Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) – 12 years

Prediction: 10.8 – 15.2% increase to $1.02 – $1.06

Actual: Deferred to November

The Canadian solid waste services company should announce its latest dividend boost in November.

Predictions for Dividend Increases for the First Half of November

There are 15 companies I expect to announce their annual dividend increases in the first half of November. First, here are my predictions for three featured companies:

Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) – 50 years

The medical device designer and manufacturer saw good EPS growth in fiscal 2021 (which ended September 30, 2021), with nearly 30% growth to $13.08 a share. Much of this was due to the large amounts of COVID-19 diagnostic testing. As the pandemic has receded, BD’s EPS are falling. While still very profitable, BD is guiding to a 14% drop in EPS in fiscal 2022. Investors should find out how accurate the guidance is when the company announces full year earnings on November 10th. With modest debt levels and a payout ratio below 25%, BD has plenty of room to start off its next half century of dividend growth with a good increase. And while investors should be able to look forward to a large boost, BD has a pattern of modest mid-single digit percentage increases. When BD had 30% EPS growth last year, the company boosted its dividend by 5%; with the drop in EPS, investors should expect a similar increase.

Prediction: 4.6 – 5.7% increase to $3.64 – $3.68

Predicted Forward Yield: 1.55 – 1.56%

Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) – 65 years

Emerson Electric designs and manufactures automation and control systems for a wide variety of industries and applications, including both commercial and residential uses. I’m featuring it this month because of its very long dividend growth history. This is a company that is dedicated to increasing its payout, having done so since during the Eisenhower administration. For 65 years, Emerson has made sure to boost its dividend, even slightly. As a mature and slowly growing company, Emerson’s dividend growth rate is nothing to write home about. Over the last decade, the company has compounded its dividend by less than 3%. Last year’s earnings growth may portend a larger boost this year. Fiscal 2021’s adjusted EPS grew by 19% and the company is guiding to nearly 25% growth this year. As for headwinds, Emerson does have a fairly large debt load with a debt-to-equity ratio around 100%. In the end, however, you don’t build a dividend growth record over two-thirds of a century by massive payout increases. I think Emerson may boost its dividend larger than 3% this year, but investors won’t see anything close to double-digits.

Prediction: 1.9 – 3.9% increase to $2.10 – $2.14

Predicted Forward Yield: 2.40 – 2.45%

HP Inc. (HPQ) – 13 years

The technology company is known to individuals for its computers and printers, but HP has its hands in the 3D printing market. The company’s adjusted EPS exploded by 66% in 2021, which led to a 29% dividend increase last year. The company has grown quickly since its “reinvention” (as HP puts it) in 2015. With that growth has come rapid dividend growth and larger buybacks of outstanding shares – HP has a 12.6% dividend growth rate and bought back 28% of its shares over the last 5 years. Will this continue? Perhaps, but things may stall this year. While EPS are up 14% in the first 9 months of 2022, HP is looking at 4th quarter EPS between 44 and 54 cents, leading to zero year-over-year adjusted EPS growth. Nevertheless, HP has a payout ratio below 30%, so the company can still come through with a good increase, but it won’t be anywhere near last year’s boost.

Prediction: 8.0 – 14.0% increase to $1.08 – $1.14

Predicted Forward Yield: 3.85 – 4.06%

Here are my predictions for the 12 other companies which should announce annual increases in the first half of November:

Company	# yrs	Industry	Prediction (%)	New Annual Rate
					AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)	18	Healthcare	4.3% – 6.5%	$1.92 – $1.96
The pharmaceutical supply chain company has boosted its annual dividend by 8 cents for each of the last 6 years. With a heavy debt load, it’s likely the company will extend that streak to 7 years. But with 19% expected growth in adjusted EPS, there’s a small chance of a slightly larger increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.21 – 1.23%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)	47	Industrials	10.6% – 12.5%	$4.60 – $4.68
The business services company continues to grow adjusted EPS by double-digits, allowing for more double-digit dividend growth. After announcing 16% EPS growth in fiscal 2022, ADP is expecting an additional 13 – 16% EPS growth in fiscal 2023. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.90 – 1.93%
Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)	18	Financial	2.9% – 4.4%	$2.80 – $2.84
Specialty insurer Assurant is guiding to EPS growth in the high single digit percentages. However, the company is dedicating a decent amount of its free cash flow to buying back stock. Investors can expect this year’s increase to be similar to last year’s 3% boost. Predicted Forward Yield: 2.08 – 2.11%
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)	38	Utilities	8.1% – 9.6%	$2.94 – $2.98
The Dallas-based natural gas company continues to grow EPS in the high single digit percentages. Last year, the company grew EPS by 8.5% and boosted its dividend by 8.8%. Atmos is guiding to 8.4% EPS growth this year, so I expect a dividend increase similar to last year’s. Predicted Forward Yield: 2.74 – 2.78%
Evergy, Inc. (EVRG)	19	Utilities	2.2% – 3.5%	$2.34 – $2.37
The Missouri-based utility’s last dividend increase was 7% a year ago, but with the company guiding to zero EPS growth for this fiscal year, investors can expect a much smaller increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 3.78 – 3.83%
Griffon Corporation (GFF)	11	Industrials	5.6% – 11.1%	$0.38 – $0.40
Griffon has two business subsidiaries: The AMES Companies, which manufactures home storage and organization products, and Clopay Corporation, which manufactures garage and rolling steel doors. Griffon generally announces 2 – 4 cent annual increases, and periodically announces special dividends when they are able to. In July, Griffon announced a $2 special dividend and paid down $300 million in revolving debt following the sale of a defense electronics subsidiary. The company will likely maintain its dividend growth pattern this year. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.16 – 1.22%
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII)	10	Industrials	8.1% – 10.2%	$5.10 – $5.20
The shipbuilder saw EPS fall in 2021, with pension costs hitting causing a drop of 21%. This led to Huntington Ingalls boosting its dividend last November by only 3.5%, far below the company’s 15% compounded growth average over the last 5 years. EPS are looking up so far in 2022, with 15% growth. It won’t be enough to return to a 15% payout boost, but investors may see a double-digit boost. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.98 – 2.02%
Lancaster Colony Corporation (LANC)	60	Consumer Defensive	0 – 2.5%	$3.20 – $3.28
The owner of food brands like Marzetti salad dressings, and Sister Schubert’s and NY Bakery’s breads, Lancaster Colony will start its 7th decade of dividend growth this year. The company plans to pass on cost increases to its customers but until those hit earnings, the company will struggle. EPS were down 37% to $3.25 in fiscal 2022, putting the payout ratio at a too-high 98%. Lancaster Colony will either skip the dividend increase this year, relying on the history of mid-year boosts to show year-over-year dividend growth to keep its dividend growth streak going, or announce a very small increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.77 – 1.81%
MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)	31	Basic Materials	2.30%	$0.89
The natural gas utility and manufacturer of construction materials has downgraded its EPS guidance for this year, and is expecting flat to slightly declining EPS. MDU has boosted its dividend by 2 cents each year for the last 12 years. The company will extend this to 13 years in November. Predicted Forward Yield: 3.10%
Nelnet, Inc. (NNI)	8	Financial	8.3% – 12.5%	$1.04 – $1.08
The credit servicer grew EPS by 13% in 2021 and another 34% in the first half of 2022. While this would normally mean a large payout increase, Nelnet devotes a significant amount of free cash flow to share buybacks. I expect an 8th straight year of an 8-cent annual increase, with the possibility of something larger. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.16 – 1.20%
Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP)	29	Industrials	9.7% – 12.9%	$2.72 – $2.80
Diversified manufacturer Roper saw adjusted EPS jump by 23% in 2021, but is expecting EPS to go flat in 2022. The company has a modest debt level and a payout ratio below 20% so, although the growth doesn’t support it this year, I expect Roper to continue its history of double-digit dividend growth. Prediction: 9.7 – 12.9% increase to $2.72 – $2.80
Snap-on Incorporated (SNA)	13	Industrials	14.1% – 15.5%	$6.48 – $6.56
The tool and diagnostic equipment manufacturer has a 15% compounded growth rate over the last decade. Between 30% EPS growth in 2021 and 15% EPS growth in the first three quarters of 2022, investors can look forward to another double-digit boost. Predicted Forward Yield: 2.95 – 2.99%

Click to enlarge

Summary

The dividend increases keep rolling along for investors. In inflationary times, it’s helpful to know that companies’ payouts are rising, even if many of them aren’t keeping up with the 8%+ inflation rate in the United States. But well-managed companies with pricing power are able to pass along price increases to customers that more than make up for inflation. There were several companies that were able to do this, announcing double-digit increases in October: BancFirst, insurer Brown & Brown, industrial equipment manufacturer Lincoln Electric, and McDonald’s all announced 10%+ increases.

Other companies that announced larger than expected increases included utilities Middlesex Water and American Electric Power.

Since there are so many dividend increases in November, I’ve broken out my predictions into two articles. For the first half of November, investors can expect announcements from ADP and Snap-On, both of which I expect to boost their payout by double digits. Utilities Atmos Energy, MDU and Evergy should also announce annual increases. And, notably, Emerson – with a 65 year track record of dividend growth – should extend its streak to 66 years.