S&P 500 could overshoot 4600 in H1 2023

By Senad Karaahmetovic 

While some equity strategists, like those from Morgan Stanley, see this week’s Fed meeting as a catalyst for stocks to rotate lower, some also see a chance for the rally to extend beyond the critical resistance of 4100.

Oppenheimer technical analysts argue that the has finally managed to reverse its 2022 downtrend after the index broke above the descending trend line.

“We expect strength to continue over the coming months, because 1) our cycle work is a tailwind, 2) internal breadth continues to broaden, and 3) cyclical leadership has supported the turn,” the analysts wrote in a note to clients.

They see the S&P 500 closing the year at 4400 although they project the index will “overshoot” to 4600 in the first half of the year.

“This marks the height of the index’s H2’22 base projected from the reversal point, and converges with Q1’22 resistance, too. While market bears have pointed to optimistic sentiment as a contrarian argument against continued gains, we don’t see such frothiness in our work,” the analysts added.

JPM strategists also believe that the market will continue moving higher in the coming weeks. However, they also told their clients to fade any further rallies.

“Q1 will, in our view, likely mark a turning point, as the fundamental confirmation for the next leg higher might not come, and instead markets could encounter an air-pocket of weaker earnings and activity, as they move through Q2 and Q3,” the strategists told clients in a note.

“Beyond the still sharply decelerating money supply in the US and in Europe, inverted yield curve, no Fed pivot in sight and the continuing QT in the background, we believe that what was a very resilient corporate profits backdrop over the past two years will start to turn lower, as the pricing power reverses,” they added.