alexei_tm/iStock via Getty Images
Foreword
This article is based on six Kiplinger investing articles aimed at revealing ‘the best’ for the rest of 2022, and it’s looking like they may hold strong into Q1 of 2023:
19 High Upside Potential Stocks
S&P Global Market Intelligence data screened the S&P 500 for stocks with Strong Buy consensus recommendations and implied upside of at least 20% in the next 12 months or so, based on share prices and analysts’ average price targets as of Sept. 21. -By Dan Burrows, September, 2022
10 picks look like the best marijuana stocks (and funds) to benefit from this ongoing growth and maturation. -By Will Ashworth, September, 2022
10 High-Paying Dividend Stocks
For a list of quality firms, we looked for companies with solid fundamentals, generous yields and backing from the analyst community. These are worth a closer look. -By Will Ashworth, September, 2022
TipRanks database shortlists five retail stocks that Wall Street analysts are still bullish on. Each name boasts a Strong Buy rating and offers a significant upside potential to current levels based on their consensus price targets. -By Shrilekha Pethe, September, 2022
Here are 10 of the best green stocks for investors looking to cash in on the trend toward sustainability. Included in the list are names from a variety of sectors and industries and all are well-liked by the analyst community. -By Mike Adams, September, 2022
UBS’s 43 Top Stocks for a Volatile Market
UBS Compiled a list of its highest-conviction ideas in this tumultuous environment, what UBS calls its “highest-conviction calls in a volatile market.” We used industry analysts’ average 12-month price targets rather than target prices provided solely by UBS. -By Dan Burrows, September, 2022
Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to this yield-based (dog catcher) analysis; these six Kiplinger articles projecting ‘top’ reliable dividend stocks for investors were perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is the November 17 data for 52 dividend paying stocks of 84 screened and the 8 living up to the dogcatcher ‘ideal’ in this Kiplinger collection.
The Ides of March 2020 plunge in the stock market took its toll on stocks over two years and nine months ago. However, continued escalation in prices for these fifty-two dividend stocks made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more remote for first-time investors.
November, 2022 shows a glimmer of light from eight stocks emerging as dogcatcher ideal candidates. They are: Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG); Altria Group, Inc. (MO); New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYCB); Douglas Emmett Inc (DEI); Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB); Clearway Energy, Inc. (CWEN); Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI). Their prices settled between $5 and $264 below the annual dividend payout from a $1K investment.
Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Estimated Top-Ten Kiplinger Post-Harvest Dividend Stocks Could Net 20.89% to 138.07% Gains By November 2023
Two of the tops-by-yield Kiplinger Post-Harvest Stocks (tinted in the chart below) were also the top gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year targets. Thus, the top yield dog strategy for this group, as graded by analyst estimates for this month, proved 20% accurate.
Estimated dividend-returns from $1000 invested in each of the highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median-target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2022-23 data points. However, one year target-prices by lone analysts were not counted. The resulting ten probable best-profit-generating Post-Harvest Stocks projected to November 17, 2023, were:
Source: YCharts.com
Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (IIPR) netted $1,389.70 based on the median of target estimates from 6 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 59% greater than the market as a whole.
Spectrum Brands Holdings (SPB) netted $872.52 based on estimates from 7 analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 49% greater than the market as a whole.
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (BEP) netted $338.99 based on estimates from 14 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 22% less than the market as a whole.
Douglas Emmett, Inc. net $331.96 based on the median of target estimates from 14 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 10% less than the market as a whole.
Levi Strauss & Co. netted $318.17 based on the median of target prices estimated by 13 analysts, plus estimated dividends, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for LEVI.
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) netted $314.58 based on the median of target estimates from 6 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 15% less than the market as a whole.
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) netted $289.89 based on the median of target estimates from 23 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 8% greater than the market as a whole.
Berry Global Group, Inc. (BERY) netted $233.84 based on dividends plus a median target price estimate from 17 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 18% more than the market as a whole.
Graphic Packaging Holding Co. (GPK) netted $224.34 based on the median of target price estimates from 16 analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 2% less than the market as a whole.
Equity Residential (EQR) netted $208.87 based on the median of target estimates from 22 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 23% less than the market as a whole.
The average net-gain in dividend and price was 45.14% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten Kiplinger Harvest-Time stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 7% greater than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
The “dog” moniker was earned by stocks exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More specifically, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs”.
Top 53 Harvest-Time Dividend Stock Picks By Broker Targets
Source: YCharts.com
This scale of broker-estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a scale of market popularity. Note: no broker coverage or 1 broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. This scale can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below. As noted above, these scores may also be taken as contrarian.
Top 53 Harvest-Time Dividend Stock Picks By Yield
Source: YCharts.com
Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top Stocks By Yield Are The November Post-Harvest Dividend Dogs
Top ten Post-Harvest Dividend Stocks selected 11/17/22 by yield represented just five of eleven Morningstar sectors. First place was secured by the first of four energy representatives, Dorian LPG Ltd (LTG) [1]. The others placed second, eighth, and tenth, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (PXD) [2], Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) [8), and Williams Companies, Inc. [10].
Third place was secured by the first of two consumer defensive members, Altria Group Inc [3], white the other took ninth, Philip Morris International (PM) [9].
The lone financial services representative placed fourth, New York Community Bancorp, Inc. [4]. Two real estate members placed fifth, and sixth: Douglas Emmett, Inc. [6], and Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. [7].
Finally, one basic materials concern placed seventh: LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) [7], to complete this Post-Harvest Dividend Stock top ten, by yield, for November.
Source: YCharts.com
Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Post-Harvest Dividend Stocks Showed 17.84% To 132.67% Upsides To November, 2023, With (31) No Losers
To quantify top-yield rankings, analyst median-price target estimates provided a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig-out bargains.
Analysts Estimated A 24.01% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced of Top-Ten Harvest-Time Stocks To November, 2023
Ten top Post-Harvest Stocks were culled by yield for this monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
Source: YCharts.com
As noted above, top-ten Harvest-Time Dogs selected 11/17/22, showing the highest dividend yields, represented five of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated The 5 Lowest-Priced Of Ten Highest-Yield Post-Harvest Dividend Stocks (33) Delivering 24.02% Vs. (34) 31.6% Net Gains by All Ten by November, 2023
Source: YCharts.com
$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Harvest-Time dividend pack by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 24.01% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The seventh lowest-priced Post-Harvest top-yield stock, Innovative Industrial Properties Inc, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 138.07%.
Source: YCharts.com
The five lowest-priced top-yield Post-Harvest dividend stocks for November 17 were: New York Community Bancorp; Douglas Emmett Inc; Dorian LPG Ltd; William Companies Inc; Altria Group Inc, with prices ranging from $9.46 to $43.67
The five higher-priced top-yield Harvest-Time dividend stocks for November 17 were: LyondellBasell Industries LP; Phillip Morris International Inc; Innovative Industrial Properties Inc; Diamondback Energy Inc; Pioneer Natural Resources Co, whose prices ranged from $81.79 to $256.56.
This distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 90% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.
Afterword
If somehow you missed the suggestion of the nine stocks ripe for picking at the start of the article, here is a repeat of the list at the end:
Source: YCharts.com
In the current market advance, dividends from $1K invested in the eight stocks listed above met or exceeded their single share prices as of 11/17/22.
As we are nine months past the second anniversary of the 2020 Ides of March dip, the time to snap up those nine top yield Post-Harvest dogs is now… unless another big bearish drop in price looms ahead. (At which time, your strategy would be to add to your holdings.)
To learn which of these eight ideally-priced opportunities are “safer” to buy (namely which have ready cash to pay their dividends). Use the last bullet in the Summary above to navigate to my dividend dogcatcher follow-up article after November 27 in the SA Marketplace.
Recent vs Fair Top Ten Post-Harvest Stock Prices
Since five of the top-ten Post-Harvest Dividend shares are priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the following charts compare the five at recent prices with the break-even pricing of all ten. Starting with the dollar and percent variants to all ten top dogs conforming to (but not exceeding) the dogcatcher ideal in the top chart, the recent prices are documented in the middle chart and the fair prices calculated in the bottom chart.
Source: YCharts.com
The top chart is an indicator of how low the five non-ideal stocks must adjust to become fair-priced. Which means conforming the standard of dividends from $1K invested exceeding the current single share price.
All 97 Post-Harvest Stocks by Title and Author
The analysis above focuses primarily on the top yield 30 Harvest-Time selections. Below is the list of all the stocks including the duplicate listings, by title and author.
Source: Kiplinger.com
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Post-Harvest dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by YCharts.
Be the first to comment