Gold Price Talking Points
Gold continues to give back the advance from earlier this month as US lawmakers unveil another fiscal stimulus program to combat the economic shock from COVID-19, and the price for bullion may stage a larger pullback as it extends the series of lower highs and lows carried over from the previous week.
Gold Price Levels to Watch amid Correction from 2020 High
The price of gold remains under pressure as the US Senate passes a $484B stimulus program to assist small businesses and hospitals through the pandemic, and the unprecedented efforts taken by fiscal as well as monetary authorities may continue to sap the appeal of bullion as it helps to restore investor confidence.
Looking ahead, plans to gradually roll back the lockdown laws across the advanced economies is likely to influence influence trader sentiment as the Trump administration outlines a three-phased approach to reopen the US, and hopes for a V-shaped recovery may fuel a larger correction in gold as major central banks push monetary policy into uncharted territory.
It remains to be seen if the slew of unconventional measures taken by major central banks will jumpstart the global economy as New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), warns of a protracted recovery in the US, and the economic shock from COVID-19 may be felt throughout 2020 if the behaviors sparked by the lockdown laws become a new norm.
At the same time, the collapse in crude oil futures suggest more historical events will occur this year amid the slowdown in global growth, and the low interest rate environment may continue to act as a backstop for goldas marketparticipants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies.
With that said, the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive as the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) helped to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation, with a similar scenario arising in March as the price of gold reversed course from the monthly low ($1451).
However, the price of bullion may continue to pullback from the yearly high ($1748) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) establishes a negative slope following the failed attempt to push into overbought territory.
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Gold Price Daily Chart
Source: Trading View
- The opening range for 2020 instilled a constructive outlook for the price of gold as the precious metal cleared the 2019 high ($1557), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushing into overbought territory during the same period.
- A similar scenario materialized in February, with the price of gold marking the monthly low ($1548) during the first full week, while the RSI broke out of the bearish formation from earlier this year to push back into overbought territory.
- However, the monthly opening range for March as less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the decline from the monthly high ($1704) leading to a break of the January low ($1517).
- Nevertheless, the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1450 (38.2% retracement) to $1452 (100% expansion) instilled a constructive outlook for bullion especially as the RSI reversed course ahead of oversold territory and broke out of the bearish formation carried over from the previous month.
- The break/close above $1710 (100% expansion) pushed the price of gold to a fresh yearly high ($1748), but the precious metal has pared the advance from earlier this month following the failed run at the November 2012 high ($1754).
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights similar dynamic as the oscillator establishes a negative slope following the failed attempt to push into overbought territory.
- The string of failed attempt to close above the Fibonacci overlap around $1733 (78.6% retracement) to $1739 (100% expansion) has pushed the price of gold below the $1676 (78.6% expansion) region, with a break/close below $1655 (78.6% expansion) opening up the Fibonacci overlap around $1627 (61.8% expansion) to $1635 (78.6% retracement).
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— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist
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