duc’s ‘Margin of Safety’ investment

So here is my choice:

View attachment 91108

My total investment will be $10K
My entry price is $5.22.
I have 1530 shares for a total of $7987 [not inc. commissions]
I have a surplus of $2K

This thread will not be particularly active and will simply plod along unless something really dramatic and unforeseen occurs.

So why is there a margin of safety?

1. This is an ETF, there is a portfolio of stocks held in the single security.
2. Any shockers will be replaced by the fund managers.
3.Your risk is therefore controlled to an extent through limited exposure to any 1 stock
4. Any big individual out-performers naturally create an increasing influence on the fund.
5. The ETF is optionable. I can increase my returns via options. On the negative, currently the Options market for this ETF is very thin. I’m hoping that that will change for the better.

Risks not managed.

1. All the stocks are in one industry.
2. I would have preferred greater diversification.
3. If that industry turns to custard, well, so does your ETF.
4. As ETFs go, it is not a huge ETF on a capitalisation basis, I’ll keep an eye on this.

Monthly dividend of $0.11/share = $168/month return = 2.2%/month = 25%/year. Therefore in 4yrs you have a total return of your initial investment. This assumes of course the payments do not stop or are reduced. We’ll see what happens.

These are pipelines. They are essentially toll takers. The business model is simple. Whether there are any real barriers to entry apart from capital, probably not, but I haven’t looked at Federal or State regulations at this point, so that may be helpful to the various businesses in restricting new entrants to the business. However, it’s not really a risk as if there was a new entrant and they were wildly successful, if they had common stock, the fund would add their stock.

The Target.

The target is a 1000% return in 5yrs. I’ll state up front that anything approaching that will require perfect conditions, viz. a lot of luck.

However, I expect zero luck and therefore to manufacture returns through intelligent investing. This means that I have an expectation that the market will fluctuate. I will capitalise on those fluctuations. This will not be a passive sit and hold exercise. The intention is to grow this investment actively.

jog on
duc

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*