Big Week Ahead for the Rand

RAND ANALYSIS

• Geopolitics endure.
• Unemployment data tomorrow.
• SA Budget Speech in focus on Wednesday.

ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to a ‘meeting’ with Russian President Vladimir Putin should an invasion not occur giving markets a hopeful start to the week. The South African rand drew strength (against the dollar) from the potential around a diplomatic solution in early trading along with many of its Emerging Market (EM) currency peers. Markets quickly shifted after activity on the Ukrainian border escalated while the Russians denied the aforementioned presidential meet giving rise to a flight for safety. The constant shift in risk makes forecasts quite complex during this period however if we focus on economic variables at play, the rand could be in for a tough week with many important releases due.

Source: DailyFX economic calendar

The first comes from tomorrows unemployment print which reached record highs in Q3 (34.96%). Another rise could be extremely detrimental for the rand as investor confidence will likely decline. On Wednesday 23 February South Africans await the Budget Speech which will be carried out by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in what will be his inaugural speech. Some key points to look out for:

• Fuel prices as a consequence of rising oil prices
• Limiting excessive public sector wage bill growth
• Reduction in budget deficit
• Easing debt
• Retirement fund restructuring
• Corporate tax rate cut
• Personal income tax
• Excise tax
• VAT

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD/ZAR DAILY CHART

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

The short-term bearish channel (blue) remains in tact after pushing off support last week. Another potential long wick candle close today may suggest further ZAR depreciation against the dollar. The frequency of extended lower wicks show the reluctance of markets to allow for levels below the 15.0000 psychological handle.

Bullish divergence as mentioned in my previous analysis looks to be unfolding as price action tracks higher in line with the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Resistance levels:

• Channel support
• 20-day EMA (purple)

Support levels:

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas