47 Buffett Dogs Chase 3 August Buys And 5 To Watch

Foreword

Dan Burrows and Kyle Woodley say in Kiplinger Investing:

“The Berkshire Hathaway portfolio is a diverse set of blue chips and, increasingly, lesser-known growth bets. Here’s a look at every stock picked by Warren Buffett and his lieutenants.”

Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, this Buffett/Berkshire batch is perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is the August 16 data for 30 dividend paying stocks in the Kiplinger-documented collection of 47 currently owned by Buffett through his Berkshire-Hathaway firm.

Another resource consulted for this article was dogsofthedow.com which also keeps an ongoing spreadsheet of the Buffett/Berkshire stocks updated quarterly per BRK SEC filings, the next of which reports in November.

A rapid market recovery after the Ides of March 2020 plunge made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares reflecting this collection less viable for first-time investors.

This August 2022 update shows that the following three top dogs of Berkshire stocks now live up to the dogcatcher ideal of paying annual dividends (from a $1K investment) exceeding its single share prices: STORE Capital Corp. (STOR), The Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC), and Paramount Global (PARA).

Five more are within $9.00 or 17% of the ideal: Ally Financial (ALLY) at 6.15%, HP Inc. (HPQ) at 8.32%, US Bancorp (USB) at 13.02%, Bank of New York Mellon (BK) at 14.52%, and Citigroup Inc. (C) at 16.6%. Those are the stocks showing price decreases that would pay dividends at current payout levels from $1k invested equaling their single share prices.

To run down the “safer” dividends of those three and the almost five more, check out the Dividend Dog Catcher marketplace site (by clicking on the last summary bullet above) after August 25.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 14.07% To 28.54% Net Gains For Ten Top Buffett-Held Dividend Stocks Come August 2023

Four of these ten Buffett-held top dividend stocks by yield were also among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, this yield-based forecast for these Buffett dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 40% accurate.

Estimated dividends from $1000 invested in each of these highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, produced the data points for the projections below. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to August 16, 2023 were:

Ally Financial Inc was projected to net $285.37, based on the median of target estimates from 20 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 33% higher than the market as a whole.

Celanese Corp. (CE) netted $268.30 based on the median of estimates from 20 analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 22% greater than the market as a whole.

Visa Inc. (V) was projected to net $187.38 based on a median of target price estimates from 31 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 11% under the market as a whole.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) was projected to net $171.21, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 23 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 40% greater than the market as a whole.

Mastercard Inc. (MA) was projected to net $170.17, based on the median of target price estimates from 34 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 4% greater than the market as a whole.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) was projected to net $163.37 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 26 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 89% greater than the market as a whole.

Chevron Corp. (CVX) netted $159.22 based on the median of estimates from 28 analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 16% greater than the market as a whole.

Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) was projected to net $151.26 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 23 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 49% under the market as a whole.

U.S. Bancorp (USB) was projected to net $142.92, based on a median of target price estimates from 21 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 3% under the market as a whole.

Citigroup Inc. was projected to net $140.66, based on the median of target price estimates from 22 analysts plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 61% over the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 18.4% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risk/volatility 34% over the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends; and (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs.”

47 Buffett Holdings By Target Gains

30 Buffett Picks By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top Buffett-Held Stocks By Yield Are The Dogs of Berkshire-Hathaway

Top ten Buffett-held stocks selected 8/16/22 by yield represented seven of eleven Morningstar sectors.

First place went to the lone real estate company STORE Capital Corp [1]. Next, the lone consumer defensive sector representative placed second, The Kraft Heinz Co [2].

Then, four dogs from the financial services sector, placed third, fourth, seventh, and eighth: Citigroup Inc [3] U.S. Bancorp [4], Bank of New York Mellon Corp [7], and Ally Financial Inc [8].

Taking fifth was one one from the energy sector, Chevron Corp (CVX) [5]. The lone of two communication services company placed sixth, Paramount Global [6].

One from the technology sector, placed ninth, HP Inc [9], and finally, the lone industrial stock placed tenth, United Parcel Service (UPS) to complete the August Buffett/Berkshire top ten dividend dogs, by yield.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top Ten May Berkshire/Buffett Dogs Showed 11.3%-26.29% Upsides, While (31) Three Showed A Downside of -0.02% to -3.88%.

To quantify top-dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 11.45% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, Of 10 Top Buffett-Collected Dividend Stocks To August 2023

Ten-top Buffett/Berkshire dividend dogs were culled by yield for this update. Yield (dividend/price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten Buffett-chosen dividend dogs screened 8/16/22 showing the highest dividend yields represented seven of eleven Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield Buffett-Held Dogs (31) Delivering 14.71% Vs. (32) 13.2% Average Net Gains by All Ten Come August 16, 2023

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top-ten dividend Buffett-selected kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 11.45% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The fourth lowest-priced selection, Ally Financial Inc, was projected to deliver the best analyst-estimated net gain of 28.54%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield Buffett-backed dividend dogs as of August 16 were: Paramount Global; STORE Capital Corp; HP Inc; Ally Financial Inc; The Kraft Heinz Co, with prices ranging from $27.20 to $38.83.

Five higher-priced Buffett-picked dividend dogs as of August 16 were, of New York Mellon Corp; US Bancorp; Citigroup Inc; Chevron Corp; United Parcel Service, whose prices ranged from $44.03 to $206.35.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 90% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change (within 2.5%).

Afterword

If somehow you missed the suggestion of the three stocks ready for pick-up at the start of the article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:

This July 2022 update shows that the following six top dogs of Berkshire stocks now live up to the dogcatcher ideal of paying annual dividends (from a $1K investment) exceeding its single share prices: STORE Capital Group; The Kraft Heinz Co; Paramount Global.

Five more are within $9.00 or 17% of the ideal: Ally Financial, HP Inc., Citigroup Inc. at 9.85%, US Bank at 8.14%, and Bank of New York Mellon at 10.05%. Those are the stocks showing price decreases that would pay dividends at current payout levels from $1k invested equaling their single share prices.

To run down the “safer” dividends of those three and the almost five more, check out the Dividend Dog Catcher marketplace site (by clicking on the last summary bullet above) after August 25.

Price Drops or Dividend Increases Could Get All Ten Dogs of Buffett Back to “Fair Price” Rates For Investors

The charts above retain the recent dividend amount and adjust share price to produce a yield (from $1K invested) to equal or exceed the single share price of each stock. As you can see, this illustration shows the three fair-priced dogs in the top ten (STOR, KHC, and PARA), plus five out-of-bounds-priced stocks (ALLY; CVX; C; USB; BK; UPS). The outliers need to trim prices between $2.27 and $128.33 to realize the 50/50 goal for share prices equaling dividend payouts from $10k invested.

The alternative, of course, would be for these companies raise their dividends. That, of course, is a lot to ask in these highly disrupted, dollar-flooded, and inflationary times.

Market action is the key. Seven more only need to drop 6.15% to 62.19% to become Buffet Ideal dividend dogs.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Buffett/Berkshire batch stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb; YCharts; finance.yahoo; analyst mean target price by YCharts. Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com.