Sterling (GBP) Price, Chart and Analysis:
- There is a 50/50 chance of a UK rate cut this Thursday.
- EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier speaks later today.
British Pound (GBP) Likely to Remain Rangebound Ahead of ‘Live’ BoE Meeting
Sterling is marginally better-bid in early European turnover as traders remain focused on Thursday’s Bank of England meeting where there is currently a 50/50 chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut. The last cut, in August 2016, came shortly after the UK voted to leave the EU, and it remains to be seen if the MPC will use this meeting to trim rates further, especially after last week’s better-than-expected PMI data for January. The common consensus now is for the MPC to vote 6-3 for unchanged rates – from 7-2 at the last meeting – with the central bank likely to wait for more hard data to indicate the strength, or not, of the UK economy.
Post-Brexit Trade Talks – Preparations Continue
The post-Brexit battle lines continue to be drawn with the EU reiterating today that the UK must allow the EU continued access to UK fishing waters in order to obtain future concessions and continued access to the EU financial services sector. Whether this is an EU ‘red-line’ or is just part of a bargaining position will be seen over the next few weeks. Chief EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is speaking at Queen’s University Belfast later today and his commentary may well dampen any further Sterling upside.
For all market moving data releases and events, please see the DailyFX Calendar.
GBP/USD Edging Back Towards 1.3100
Cable is currently nudging higher and trying to re-take 1.3100. The pair have broken through minor resistance from the 20- and 50-day moving averages, currently at 1.3065 and 1.3087 respectively, although a close above both will be needed to underpin the next move higher. Resistance either side of 1.3150 guards the short-term target of 1.3177, last Friday’s high. This near three-week high may prove difficult to better with the BoE meeting looming on the horizon. Short-term support between 1.3050 and 1.3058.
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GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (August 2019 – January 27, 2020)
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