25 Comments

  1. You win $2 when you are right but lose only $1 (due to stop loss) when wrong. In this case, probability of winning $2 is always half of losing $1. In the long run, you will run out of money even in this case.

    You can only make money when probability of two consecutive up ticks is same as one down tick.

  2. Excellent video once again. Actually your blog post on expectancy covers this in detail.

    I still say there is no substitute for self back and forward testing. Get or make a good excel trading journal. Distill your strategy into quantifiable setups and start to meticulously log and screenshot every trade. Do a backtest first. Then do a forward test on a demo. 100 trades minimum per test.

    In fact, I highly recommend FX Blue Trading Simulator for MT4 and MT5. It's a free EA that you can run in the strategy tester to simulate forward testing of historical data. You can place trades which are saved into their database.

    Or. You could just use the hand F12 (Step ahead) function lol. Point is, don't trade live till you can at least prove an edge with 100 trades. And once you do start trading live, continue journalling meticulously so you can tweak your strategy if need be.

    And finally, if your strategy is truly profitable in the long run, you can write a book and publish verified results 😛

  3. Hello Sir! Many Thanks for Correcting our Trading Mistakes through your hard work. Appreciating your hard work always. Your videos are to the point – no waste of time! Thanks once again!

  4. hi guys, just a tip: if you don't wish to pay for the books listed, you can actually find many trading strategies out there doing a simple google search. There are legit strategies there, but they are usually after page 5 (usually the top 5 pages are the ones asking you to buy their course). Quora is another excellent source, where real people post their actual backtested results. It's amazing what you can find on the Internet!

  5. Top quality content as always Rayner. I just want to say thank you so much for all your help. My trading has really improved since discovering your channel a few months ago. I still have a very long way to go but I think I'm on the right track now 🙂

  6. thanks for your book ! I like the fact that you do the talk like the rest, but also back it up a little bit on the tehnical side for us that dont know as much. Kinda giving a way in to some trading knowledge we need to get over the gap of being ignorant.

  7. Rayner, I would appreciate if you can share your email add. I want to know which broker would be the best to start with my live trading. Im done with my demo and I can tell I have gained confidence to start a live trading. Thank you man!

  8. The book “Building Reliable Trading Systems” by Keith Fitschen is being sold for USD1160 on Amazon. Is that the correct figure or am I being scammed? Can anyone confirm? Thanks in advance

  9. So true Ryan, must have an edge. Apart from that, I believe more important than psychology is the understanding of how the brain works, especially as it relates to randomness.

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